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摘要翻译：
风险，包括经济风险，越来越受到公共政策和管理的关注。然而，由于缺乏风险评估和管理的可靠经验基础，有效处理风险的可能性受到阻碍。本文阐述了城市轨道交通项目成本风险和需求风险的一般观点。本文提供的经验证据允许有效的经济风险评估和管理的城市轨道项目，包括对单个或组项目的基准。哥本哈根地铁的基准是一个很好的例子。为改进政策和规划中的经济和金融风险评估和管理，提出了将所制定的方法作为其他类型政策和项目的模式。
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英文标题：
《Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other
Infrastructure》
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作者：
Bent Flyvbjerg
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. The paper demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projects. The paper presents empirical evidence that allow valid economic risk assessment and management of urban rail projects, including benchmarking of individual or groups of projects. Benchmarking of the Copenhagen Metro is presented as a case in point. The approach developed is proposed as a model for other types of policies and projects in order to improve economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy and planning.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.7402
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