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雷达卡
英文标题：
《Propagation of Economic Shocks in Input-Output Networks: A Cross-Country
Analysis》
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作者：
Martha G. Alatriste Contreras, Giorgio Fagiolo
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European countries before the Great Depression. We show that the impact of economic shocks strongly depends on the nature of the shock and country size. Shocks that impact on final demand without changing production and the technological relationships between sectors have on average a large but very homogeneous impact on the economy. Conversely, when shocks change also the magnitudes of input-output across-sector interdependencies (and possibly sector production), the economy is subject to predominantly large but more heterogeneous avalanche sizes. In this case, we also find that: (i) the more a sector is globally central in the country network, the largest its impact; (ii) the largest European countries, such as those constituting the core of the European Union\'s economy, typically experience the largest avalanches, signaling their intrinsic higher vulnerability to economic shocks.
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中文摘要：
本文研究了经济冲击如何通过连接发达经济体工业部门的投入产出网络传播和放大。我们研究了网络扩散的替代模型，并使用大萧条前几个欧洲国家真实世界部门间依赖的投入产出数据对其进行了校准。我们表明，经济冲击的影响在很大程度上取决于冲击的性质和国家规模。在不改变生产和部门间技术关系的情况下影响最终需求的冲击，平均而言对经济产生了巨大但非常同质的影响。相反，当冲击也改变了部门间相互依赖性（以及可能的部门生产）的投入产出大小时，经济主要会受到规模较大但更为异质的雪崩规模的影响。在这种情况下，我们还发现：（i）一个部门在国家网络中的全球中心地位越高，其影响就越大；（ii）最大的欧洲国家，例如构成欧盟经济核心的国家，通常会经历最大的雪崩，表明它们对经济冲击的内在脆弱性更高。
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability 数据分析、统计与概率
分类描述：Methods, software and hardware for physics data analysis: data processing and storage; measurement methodology; statistical and mathematical aspects such as parametrization and uncertainties.
物理数据分析的方法、软硬件：数据处理与存储；测量方法；统计和数学方面，如参数化和不确定性。
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