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Is a Global Recession Imminent?
Justin Damien Guénette, M. Ayhan Kose, and Naotaka Sugawara
Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions Policy Notes (EFI Policy Notes) are prepared under the direction of the Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions (EFI). EFI Policy notes analyze topical issues of importance to policy makers in emerging market and developing economies. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
I. INTRODUCTION 3
II. GLOBAL RECESSIONS SINCE 1970 7
II.1. MAIN CHARACTERISTICS 7
II.2. EVENTS DURING GLOBAL RECESSIONS AND DOWNTURNS 8
III. GLOBAL ACTIVITY 10
III.1. EVOLUTION OF GROWTH FORECASTS 10
III.2. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT 12
IV. POLICY RESPONSES 14
IV.1. EVOLUTION OF POLICIES 14
IV.2. RECENT POLICY ACTIONS IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT 17
V. GLOBAL GROWTH SCENARIOS 21
V.1. BASELINE SCENARIO 22
V.2. SHARP DOWNTURN SCENARIO 24
V.3. GLOBAL RECESSION SCENARIO 27
VI. CONCLUSION 31
APPENDIX I. IDENTIFYING THE TURNING POINTS OF THE GLOBAL BUSINESS CYCLE 35
APPENDIX II. GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL 38
REFERENCES 41
世界银行报告：全球经济衰退在即？（英）-49页.pdf
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