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摩根大通最新的关于股票市场的策略建议共116页！
Keep adding risk…
􀂄 We closed our May-June consolidation call two weeks ago, looking for a rebound. We continue advising to add exposure. The risk-reward for stocks is improving in all the key areas of concern that we felt the market had to work through over the past 3 months.
􀂄 Key positioning: we favour a number of cyclicals, Autos, Capital Goods, Chemicals and Mining in particular. We also believe that Insurance and Banks will be the outperformers in 2H, in contrast to an overwhelming pushback from investors. We see the following positives:
􀂄 1) Bottoming out in macro momentum, to be supported by a pickup in retail sales given a rollover in commodity prices and a rebound in manufacturing, partly due to Japanese recovery. Economic surprise index is at 2 standard deviation low, a level at which the ability of weak data to disappoint starts to fade. The latest move up in both IFO and ISM is an important indicator of macro stabilisation. While June ISM composition is weak, this was similar during the last year soft patch. Equities tended to rally ahead of the trough in ISM and new order to inventories ratio.
􀂄 2) Investors should not fear the end of QE2. We think QE2 was ultimately a problem for the markets as it contributed to the EM inflationary pressure. It also undermined the asset allocation switch out of fixed income into equities. This is unwinding now. The positive daily correlation observed between equities and commodities over the past 3 months should be fading.
􀂄 3) Reduction in the peripheral contagion risk, at least in the short term. While the underlying problem is not resolved, we think “kicking the can down the road” strategy might be yet again effective to appease the markets for a while.
􀂄 4) Improvement in Chinese and broader EM growth-inflation tradeoff. Chinese inflation is likely peaking for now. The pressure is easing due to past withdrawal of liquidity, as seen in slowing M2 growth, more difficult base effects, stabilisation in commodity prices and strengthening Renminbi.
􀂄 The markets have clearly not seen a capitulation as broad indices have fallen “only” 7% from the peak. However, we note that within the US market Cyclicals posted significant underperformance vs Defensives during Mar-June period, close to 12% non-annualised at the worst point, which is 2nd largest move in the last 40 years. This suggests a reversal is overdue. In addition, various contrarian and technical indicators are in “buy” territory and poor May-June seasonality is behind us.
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