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74,74
weigh on
压于, 压在 ... 心头, 使烦恼, 使担忧
sentiment [ˈsentimənt]
n.意见,观点;感情,情绪
source [sɔ:s]
n.源(泉),发源地;来源,出处
as of
自 ... 起, 截至
BOCI
中银国际
This article proposes that the local government debt presses no immediate threat on the basis that macro economic policies are suitable and the property market keeps going. Local government financial vehicles are not expected to default in large numbers because they can get new fund by way of credit or bonds.
Authoritative data came from Audit Commission’s National Audit, saying that the total number of LGFV outstanding at end-2010 was 6 576 and LGFV debt balance was 10.72 trillion yuan, of which bank loans accounted for 8.47 trillion yuan. The debt ratio stood at 70.45%.
Data from other institutions seem distinctive. The People’s Bank of China said there were more than 10 000 vehicles being monitored at end-2010, accounted for less than 30% of all yuan loans. The China Banking Regulatory Commission pointed out the mid-term LGFV loans balance stood at 7.66 trillion yuan as of June 2010 in a conducted meeting. In addition, according to Audit Commission’s report, 1.1 trillion yuan was yet to be spent at end-2010, putting actual debt expenditures at 9.6 trillion yuan.
Considering above figures comprehensively, it is estimated that LGFV loan stood at 8 trillion to 10 trillion yuan. Taking other forms of local government debt into account, the overall debt balance might stood between the range of 10.3 trillion to 12.3 trillion yuan. Adding the 6.7 trillion yuan central government debt into the figure, the total government debt balance would have been 17 trillion to 19 trillion yuan. Divided by 39.8 trillion yuan GDP, the debt ratio was about 45.2%, well below the standard of 60%.
Among the LGFV debt amount, only 5.88 trillion yuan needs to be repaid. Divided by total of 10.9 trillion yuan local government finances, the debt ratio on the local government level is 53.9%, not so much as 70.45% pointed out in the Audit Commission's report.
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