20110801 Follow Me 82

这样的事情，截至日前总会搞定的，ZF违约，这个世界担不起啊

先顶下，美债已经达成协议了。

最近忙于分析调查数据，上网时间较少，I would miss you!~ Have a nice holiday,guys !

今天早上股市已经开始走红了
唉多少无辜的百姓又遭了一棒！

看清楚了美国政治博弈的本质
债务违约，最大的伤害着还是他们国家的国民，资本大鄂以及ZF自己

ZF违约不起啊。

82,82
wobble  ['wɔbl]   
n.摆动, 动摇, 不稳定
vi.摇晃, 游移不定
vt.使摇晃, 使动摇
whopping  ['wɔpiŋ]   
adj. 巨大的, 天大的
contractionary  
adj. 主张经济紧缩的, 主张经济收缩的
usher in  
开辟；创始；宣告…的来临, 引进
unwind  ['ʌn'waind]   
v.解开, 松开, 放松
sluggish  ['slʌgiʃ]   
adj.缓慢的, 懒惰的, 迟钝的, 萧条的,无精打采的
into a corner
陷入了困境
in the sense that
在某种意义上说，
eat into  
腐蚀, 耗费
come due  
到期

The most important thing concerned when making economic policies is to avoid economic recession. Interest rate keeps going down, resulting in a series of debt-financed asset bubbles. Fiscal stimulus and QE are used to fix the policy when bubbles burst.
Huge budget deficit may largely result from the downturn of tax revenue which was inflated by the debt-financed boom before. From the fiscal stimulus perspective, the deficit is a sacrifice to avoid the repeat of the Depression. But to cut the deficit, either by spending less or by taxing more, is sure to cause the contraction of the economy. It’s a dilemma for the government  to cut the deficit too rapidly, which will cause greater recession; on the other hand, to boost the economy will end up with the debt keeping piling up, which will in turn increase the deficit.
From the monetary policy perspective, interest rates in most developed countries are kept very low or even negative in real terms, postponing the time of tightening the policy, for fear of ushering in another round of credit crunch.
As for QE, central banks don’t want to push it further right now, and it’s not the time to unwind the policy since the economy is still not so strong.
From the above three perspectives, governments and central banks have little room to go forward, neither do they have room to go back.
Withdrawing stimulus is risky both economically and politically. Britain’s sluggish economic growth in the second quarter prevents it from cutting deficit significantly. Governments in the rich world fall into a vicious cycle as very few options left in face of a weak economy.

overriding  [ˌəʊvəˈraɪdɪŋ ]  adj.1. 最重要的；高于一切的
wobble       [ˈwɔbəl] vt. & vi.1. <使>晃动, <使>摇摆不定;抖动, 颤动
slash          [slæʃ]vt. & vi.1. 挥砍; 鞭打; 割破2. 削减 vt.1. 严厉地批评[谴责] n.1. 撒尿 2. （长而窄的）伤口，切口，砍痕 3. （用刀等）砍，劈4. 斜杠；斜线号
contractionary  紧缩效应
usher         [ˈʌʃə]n.1. 引座员, 招待员, 迎宾员2. 门房, 传达员3. 助理教员, 助教 vt.1. 引, 领, 陪同credit crunch 信贷紧缩
credit crunch 信贷紧缩
sluggish      [ˈslʌgɪʃ]adj.1. 行动迟缓的, 不机警的, 不活泼的, 无精打采的

since the  the past 25 years' policies of avoiding small recessions by stimulating the economy the developed world countries have caught in a dilemma today which they cannot go forward, in the sense that there is little political or market appetite for more stimulus. but it is also hard for them to go back . these constant easy policies make Britain and America end up with deficits of more than 10% of GDP, shortfalls that were unprecedented in peacetime.
today , america faces the  debt default . the deadline Aug 2 is approaching . Fortunately, the Senate inched closer to a deal to avoid default and raise the US borrowing limit, as politicians became more willing to compromise as the Tuesday deadline approached. if the U.S. government defaults , it will give a heavy blow to the global economy and fall into a new round of depression .
britain's sluggish growth may prevent it from cutting its deficit significantly . as the Tim Morgan of Tullett Prebon predicts he budget deficit will still be more than 8% of GDP in 2015.
it is a critical moment that the developed countries must rethink their  past 25 years' policies . it is just like drug addiction . giving up is difficult , but continues, it will cause more serious consequences . they are  doomed to facing such problems since the day such a policy has been implemented .

骆驼祥子 发表于 2011-8-1 08:09
先占个位，论坛改版后怪怪的，继续follow me,本来想发篇 ...

是啊。而且不能加好友了

期待啊~~~~~~~~~~~~~