高盛新的欧洲经济分析报告

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Initial conditions matter for fiscal policy.
Using a framework first laid out by our
global colleagues, we assess the fiscal
implications of country-specific conditions in
individual Euro-zone member states across
three dimensions—the likelihood of the
consolidation effort being sustained; the
impact on growth; and, the ‘optimality’ of
the speed of adjustment.   
While a large number of country-specific
factors are important in determining the
likelihood of a fiscal consolidation being
sustained, estimates based on past episodes
of fiscal tightening suggest that, if bond
spreads are high (and, therefore,
governments have a strong incentive to
implement consolidation plans) then the
probability of the government ‘staying the
course’ is also higher.  

7月29日欧洲经济周评.pdf (731.7 KB, 需要: 2 个论坛币)

2011-8-4 15:38:03 上传

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关键词：分析报告 欧洲经济 经济分析 Implications Determining individual colleagues framework important 欧洲经济