基于LEAP模型的中国天然气消费情景分析

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基于LEAP模型的中国天然气消费情景分析

• 郑小强1,2, 钱璐璐1,2
  

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Scenario analysis on China's gas consumption based on LEAP model

• ZHENG Xiaoqiang1,2, QIAN Lulu1,2
  

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摘要
加快天然气产业发展,提高天然气在一次能源消费中的比重,是我国加快建设清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系的重要途径。我国正处于能源转型的重要时期,天然气产业未来发展面临的不确定因素也愈发增多。为了科学预测我国天然气的消费需求,以LEAP模型为基础,分析了基准情景、深度减排情景和低度减排情景等三种不同替代情境下我国天然气消费需求。研究结果表明：① 2020—2030年,在三种情景下我国天然气消费量均高速增长,2030年后增速有所放缓;② 从长期来看,我国天然气消费需求呈稳步上升趋势,在低度减排情景、基准情景和深度减排情景下,我国天然气消费需求将分别稳定在4 500 × 108 m3、4 700 × 108 m3和5 200 × 108 m3的水平,并分别在2041年、2045年和2048年达到峰值;③ 三种情景下我国天然气消费需求结构基本稳定,从各行业消费量来看,制造业的天然气消费需求占比最高,约占总需求量的50%,其中,资源加工业、机械电子制造业、轻纺工业是制造业中对天然气需求最高的细分行业。
Abstract
Speeding up the natural gas industrial development and increasing the natural gas proportion in primary energy consumption are essential tools to quicken the construction of clean, low carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. The next industrial evolvement faces growing uncertainties for China is in an important period of energy transformation. In order to scientifically forecast the consumption demand of natural gas in China, this demand under three different alternative scenarios (baseline, deep emission reduction and low emission reduction) was analyzed by taking the LEAP model as the base. Results show that (1) the domestic gas consumption increases at a high speed under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2030, and the growth will slow down after 2030; (2) in the long run, there is a steady demand increase. Under the three scenarios of low emission reduction, baseline and deep emission reduction, the consumption demand will be stabilized at 4 500×108 m3, 4 700×108 m3 and 5 200×108 m3, and will peak in 2041, 2045 and 2048, respectively; and (3) the demand structure is substantially stable also under these scenarios. In terms of the consumption in various industries, manufacturing is at the top proportion of gas consumption demand, making up around 50% of total demand, among which resource processing, mechanical and electronic manufacturing, and light and textile belong to subdivided ones with the highest demand on natural gas.
关键词

[url=]天然气需求[/url] / [url=]天然气消费[/url] / [url=]LEAP模型[/url] / [url=]情景分析[/url] / [url=]预测[/url]

Key words

[url=]Natural gas demand[/url] / [url=]Natural gas consumption[/url] / [url=]LEAP model[/url] / [url=]Scenario analysis[/url] / [url=]Prediction[/url]

引用本文导出引用

郑小强, 钱璐璐. 基于LEAP模型的中国天然气消费情景分析. 天然气技术与经济. 2023, 17(1): 87-92 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.2095-1132.2023.01.013



ZHENG Xiaoqiang, QIAN Lulu. Scenario analysis on China's gas consumption based on LEAP model. Natural Gas Technology and Economy. 2023, 17(1): 87-92 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.2095-1132.2023.01.013

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关键词：情景分析 LEAP 天然气 Lea EAP