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Don’t expect China to ride to theeuro’s rescue
The expectation that China might swoop down andrescue the euro in its hour of need is running high. Wen Jiabao, the premier,last week told a meeting of the World Economic Forum that “China is willing togive a helping hand, and we’ll continue to invest there”. But those expectingChina to offer anything more than symbolic assistance will soon bedisappointed.
China knows that greater eurozone stability is inits national interest. The European Union is its second largest tradingpartner, and a disorderly collapse in Greece and other southern Europeancountries would have dire consequences for Europe’s economic prospects. Neitherturmoil in currency markets, nor sharp changes to trade flows, nor potentialmoves towards greater protectionism would be at all welcome in Beijing.
More strategically, the euro’s ongoing success isvital if China is ever to escape the “dollar trap” that currently ensnares (诱入陷阱)its economy. Analysts believe that two-thirds of China’s $32,000bn foreignreserves are dollar-denominated, leaving it constantly fearful of a fallingdollar. China’s long-term goal is to make the renminbi an internationalcurrency, but this will take time. In the meantime, its interests are clearlyserved by a strong euro.
For all that, however, any more than notionalsupport for the eurozone would come with significant political risks. China isnot stupid: it can see that the deadlock over Greece is less about money andmore about political will. To end the crisis every EU country, starting withGermany, must put aside its short-sighted self-interest. But with bothGermany’s people and politicians so divided, this is not going to happen.
Put simply, investing in Greek, Portuguese, Irishand even Italian government bonds is now a hazardous activity. China is notgoing to go ahead without some form of iron guarantee from Germany and France,which seems equally unlikely.
Naturally, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, andFrance’s President Nicolas Sarkozy would be delighted if China took unilateralaction, but that would put Beijing in an awkward position – both risking abacklash in European public opinion and doing nothing to move towards the typeof a more fiscally united Europe that, ultimately, is required to sustain thesingle currency.
Then, think of the money. Bailing out Greece is anexpensive business: 110bn Euro has already been spent by the EU and theInternational Monetary Fund, with about 120bn Euro more still needed. Ought Chinareally pay this amount to be a wealthy market economy?
True, it might buy some temporary friendships,perhaps to be used when another country files yet more anti-dumping chargesagainst China at the World Trade Organisation. It would also be a publicstatement confirming China’s commitment to playing a more constructive role in theinternational capitalist system. But this, on its own, is hardly temptationenough.
Some thinkers, including CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, haveeven suggested that China should be bribed to help out. Ideas include offeringa bigger role in the international financial system or pledging that a Chinesecandidate becomes the next head of the IMF. Yet even here, China may not beready. There is a serious shortage of qualified candidates for the latteroption; the former seems improbable for a country whose currency will not befully convertible for some time.
The most likely outcome, therefore, is that Chinawill risk almost none of its extensive foreign reserves to rescue the euro. Itmay buy some small symbolic quantity of southern European bonds, as an ersatz (代用的)commitment to the future of the EU. But, in the end, China is an outsider. Itknows that America is retreating from European affairs, but it is not yet readyto take its place. As seen from Beijing, the euro is a European affair. And theEuropeans will have to make right their own mistakes.
Thewriter, Yang Yao, is director and professor at the China Center for EconomicResearch at Peking University
Response by Kerry Brown
China is missing a golden opportunity finally tobecome a world power Yao Yang is probably right in saying that theChinese – despite sitting on some $3,200bn of foreign reserves – are likely tokeep their distance from purchasing large amounts of European bonds and comingto the rescue of the Greek economy. They do regard it as a problem arising frominternal political disunity in the European Union. As Beijing sees it, the onlyreal solution to the current crisis is for European leaders to get their actstogether, show some political will, make clear that the crisis is soluble (可解决的,注意发音，美国英语中把l放在前面一个音节的，所以第二个音节以ju开头，而不是lju) – and continue tosell unpopular bail-outs（纾困） for the profligate （恣意挥霍的）Greeks to their owndomestic constituencies（选民）.
In narrow terms, it is right for China to becautious. But one cannot ignore this nagging （唠叨的；挑剔的；使人不得安宁的）feeling that China is missing a golden opportunity to finally become a worldpower. Bailing out the eurozone would create immense political goodwill andwould drive further down the road towards the kind of world no longer dominatedby the US but genuinely multipolar. It would integrate more deeply China’seconomy into the global one, and might even form a kind of stepping stone to theinternationalisation of the renminbi in a few years time.
The Chinese government’s mantra （格言，流行的说法）offocusing on domestic issues before looking to the world around it is becoming abit tiresome now. Just as problems in China’s vast internal provinces areinternational because of their links to global supply chains and the stabilityof the country itself, so the woes of EU states are of intimate importance toChina. It might get some satisfaction from seeing sanctimonious （假装虔诚的；假装圣洁的；假装诚实的）Europeansbeing hit by the kind of problems they once predicted for Asia. But if it looksbeyond narrow self-interest, to a wider vision of its future as aninternational power, dealing with the Europeans on the EU debt issue makespolitical and, in the long-term, economic sense. Not doing so shows the samelack of political will that it berates （严责；申斥）westernleaders about.
Thewriter is head of the Asia Programme at Chatham House, leading the Europe ChinaResearch and Advice Network (Ecran). The views expressed here are his own anddo not reflect those of the EU
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