20111002 follow me 145 China factory activity picks up,export orders recover

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China factory activity picks up, export orders recover

                                                                  

                                                            By Langi Chiang|Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's factory activity picked up in September for a second month in a row and export orders strengthened, offering some reassurance that the world's second-largest economy can weather the global economic turmoil.

The official purchasing managers' index showed inflation pressures eased slightly, but probably not enough for Beijing to relax in its battle against soaring prices.

China's PMI inched up to 51.2 from August's 50.9, largely in line with a median forecast of 51.3 in a Reuters poll.

The new export orders index rebounded to 50.9 from 48.3 in August, which was a 28-month low. The 50-point mark is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

China is by no means immune to slowdowns in the United States and Europe, its two biggest export markets. However, strong domestic demand and solid Asian export growth have provided some insulation.

Still, investors have grown increasingly concerned that China's economy may slow more sharply than anticipated. Beijing has tried to orchestrate（精心安排） a modest cool-down to help curb inflation, but a deepening debt crisis in Europe threatens to trigger a recession there, which could trip up（把...绊倒） global growth.

Saturday's data suggested fears of a more pronounced China slowdown may be somewhat overblown. September's PMI reading was the highest since May. The index had steadily declined from March through July as growth in new orders slowed.

"September's PMI should provide some support to global investor confidence, if only at the margin," said Alistair Thornton, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Beijing.

"However, this does little to clarify policy stance, with authorities still eyeing the situation in Europe and the United States for their cue to loosen," he added in a note.

The People's Bank of China reaffirmed on Friday that it would keep monetary conditions tight in its effort to rein in stubborn inflation, adding that containing domestic price pressure remains its top priority.

The official PMI pointed to a slight ease in inflationary pressure, with the input price sub-index（成份指数） edging down to 56.6 last month from August's 57.2.

However, a separate survey by HSBC, released on Friday, showed the same sub-index climbed to a four-month high of 59.5 in September from 55.9 in August.

The official PMI, compiled by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on behalf of the National Bureau of Statistics, provides a snapshot of business conditions in factories before official monthly output data.

"The small rise in September PMI indicates a rising likelihood that the downward trend in economic growth is stabilizing," said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center, a think-tank under China's cabinet.

"But considering all factors, there is still high possibility the economy could continue to slow. Small firms are facing many difficulties right now," he added in a statement accompanying the data release.

The HSBC PMI painted a gloomier outlook of Chinese factory activity. That survey showed manufacturing shrank for a third successive month in September, with a headline reading of 49.9, unchanged from August but up from a preliminary reading of 49.4.

HSBC's report captures more small private firms which have been hit harder by domestic credit curbs and slack global demand. The official PMI includes more state-owned companies.

"China needs to increase its policy support for the small and medium-sized enterprises as soon as possible," Zhang said.

The sub-index for overall new orders picked up to 51.3 from previous month's 51.1, reversing a downward trend since March.

Although the official PMI sub-index for new export orders improved, it lagged behind the readings for the same month of the past few years, excluding the ultra-weak readings recorded in the midst of the global financial crisis.

"That means the year-on-year growth of China's exports will fall in the next two quarters under the weakening global demand," said Dong Xian'an, chief economist of Peking First Advisory.

(Reporting by Langi Chiang; Editing by Emily Kaiser)

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The official data was released on the National Day, which encouged us all. But we should clearly recognize that there are still lots of unstable factors ahead, which needs our concerted efforts to deal with.
Index calculated by HSBC is not so optimistic as it focuses more on small enterprises, which have been hurt both by domestic credit curbs and slack global demand. On the other hand, folk debit and credit problems have arisen. A legal system is in great need to be established and perfected.

"China needs to increase its policy support for the small and medium-sized enterprises as soon as possible,"
对此深表赞同，中小企业是创新的主力军，真正的市场推动力。

to much things has to be considered before the decision-making.  the european debit crisis, the sluggish in us and EU, the attitude toward the reform in bank industry,  the financial difficulty of SMES. it is very complex systematic projects , too much uncertainty are involved in it

"Beijing has tried to orchestrate a modest cool-down to help curb inflation".Though the Central Government tried its best to curb inflation,the GDP on witch Loacal Goverment focus should be paid less attention by the central govermet.

中国对于出口太依赖，而且对出口进行退税，相当于拿国人的钱来补贴外国人，非长久之计

采购经理人指数（Purchase Management Index，PMI指数）

什么是采购经理人指数

　　采购经理人指数，通常都是指美国的采购经理人指数，它是衡量美国制造业的“体检表”,是衡量制造业在生产、新订单、商品价格、存货、 雇员、订单交货、新出口订单和进口等八个方面状况的指数，是经济先行指标中一项非常重要的附属指标是美国供应管理协会ISM商业报告中关于制造业的一个主要参数。通常采购经理人指数与金属需求指标密切正相关，因而能被看作是金属需求增长率变化的有效指标。

　　PMI是一项全面的经济指标，概括了美国整体制造业状况、就业及物价表现，是全球最受关注的经济资料之一。除了对整体指数的关注外，采购经理人指数中的支付物价指数及收取物价指数也被视为物价指标的一种，而其中的就业指数更常被用来预测失业率及非农业就业人口的表现。同时，PMI是一个对亚洲及中国出口很有预测力的一个前瞻性指标。PMI已是国际通行的宏观经济监测指标体系，对国家经济活动的监测和预测具有重要作用。采购经理人指数为每月第一个公布的重要数据，加上其所反映的经济状况较为全面，因此市场十分重视数据所反映的具体结果。在一般意义上讲采购经理人指数上升，会带来美元汇价上涨；采购经理人指数下降，会带来美元汇价的下跌。

采购经理人指数的计算
　　PMI是以下不断变化的五项指标的一个综合性加权指数：新订单指标，生产指标，供应商交货指标，库存指标以及就业指标。加权指数在某种程度上具有代表意义，显示出变化的趋势和程度大小。从而得出每一家企业在每一方面的处于上升、下降和不变的结果，通过计算每一个方面不同结果企业所占比例后，得出这五个方面的扩散指数。扩散指数计算公式如下：

　　扩散指数=上升百分比-下降百分比+（不变百分比）

　　然后将这五个扩散指数按照一定的权重比例扣除季节等影响因素后得出采购经理人指数。具体权重比例如下：

　　A.产品生产权重比例25% 　

　　B.订单权重比例30%

　　C.存货权重比例10% 　

　　D.厂商表现权重比例15%

　　E.就业情况权重比例20%

　　采购经理人指数是以百分比来表示,常以50%作为经济强弱的分界点：当指数高于50%时，则被解释为经济扩张的讯号。当指数低于50%，尤其是非常接近40%时，则有经济萧条的忧虑。一般在40~~50之间时，说明制造业处于衰退，但整体经济还在扩张。


　　

Inflation is the first aim, and some support and regulations are to be done in some micro aspects.

i like this essay.