诺贝尔经济学奖竞猜

彼得·戴蒙德  有没可能呢？

Thomson Reuter预测美国最有可能获得2011年诺贝尔经济学奖的经济学家，按可能性大小排列分别为：

Douglas W. Diamond, Merton H. Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business;

• Jerry A. Hausman, John and Jennie S. MacDonald Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology;

• Halbert L. White Jr., Chancellor’s Associates Distinguished Professor of Economics, University of California San Diego;

• Anne O. Krueger, professor of international economics, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; and

• Gordon Tullock; professor emeritus of law and economics, George Mason University School of Law.


个人认为2011年诺贝尔经济奖必定花落Diamond。原因嘛，人人都爱戴梦得，哈哈，开玩笑的。戴梦得的专长是金融中介监管、金融危机和流动性，正好符合诺贝尔评委这几年见风使舵的倾向。

Hausman大小奖无数，包括克拉克奖，但主要贡献在统计学，虽然研究领域也涉及金融。胜者的诅咒，最近几年诺贝尔对克拉克奖获得者不感冒。

Tullock是研究法和经济的，明显要靠边站了。

另外两位我不认识。既然诺贝尔这几年做老好人，一般都是两三位同时获奖，今年也不例外，如果这两位没介绍到的大佬和戴梦得的研究没有交集，那只好靠边站了。

John Taylor和 Lars Svensson,货币政策规则和货币经济学的经济学家

Thomson Reuter预测美国最有可能获得2011年诺贝尔经济学奖的经济学家，按可能性大小排列分别为：

Douglas W. Diamond, Merton H. Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business;

• Jerry A. Hausman, John and Jennie S. MacDonald Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology;

• Halbert L. White Jr., Chancellor’s Associates Distinguished Professor of Economics, University of California San Diego;

• Anne O. Krueger, professor of international economics, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; and

• Gordon Tullock; professor emeritus of law and economics, George Mason University School of Law.

onceonce 发表于 2011-10-4 00:05
Thomson Reuter预测美国最有可能获得2011年诺贝尔经济学奖的经济学家，按可能性大小排列分别为：

Dougla ...

道格拉斯 戴蒙德最著名的那篇文章是和圣路易斯华盛顿大学的 Philip H. Dybvig合作的，Douglas W. Diamond  (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago) AND  Philip H. Dybvig (Washington University in Saint Louis)会一块获奖。

道理跟基德兰德与普雷斯科特一起得奖差不多。

  Philip H. Dybvig 最近几年担任西南财大长江讲座教授，金融研究院院长，每年在成都呆两个月。

  Philip H. Dybvig
http://dybfin.wustl.edu/

Southwest University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, Sichuan, China: 2010-present, Director of the Institute of Financial Studies and visitor two months per year, 2008-2009 visitor one month per year


"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," with Douglas W. Diamond, Journal of Political Economy 91, 1983, 401-419.


就是这篇银行挤兑模型的文章，是经济学领域中引用率最高的文献之一。

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki  （普林斯顿大学经济系）& John H. Moore （伦敦经济学院&爱丁堡大学经济系 ）

Why: for their famous model on credit imperfections

这组也应该迟早能得奖。不过其代表作品比上一组晚10余年。

共同点—— 研究成果都与最近几年的金融危机有密切关系

nathanlin7 发表于 2011-10-4 00:06
John Taylor和 Lars Svensson,货币政策规则和货币经济学的经济学家

John Taylor以后应该会得奖  Lars Svensson难说了

因为货币经济学领域比他重要的人还是挺多的，伍德福德、盖特勒等等。

actrually i like Robert Joseph Barro

he is very famous at the macroeconomic ,i have read his book named by Economic growth and my professor as his student in the University of rochester...so often heard him ...

his books like Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?
Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy
Macroeconomics
The Left and Democracy: Recent Debates in Latin America
A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility
Economic growth.

now ,he's back his mother-school  Harvard University,The Research Papers in Economics project ranked him as the 4th most influential economist in the world as of August 2011 based on his academic contributions.[1] Barro is considered one of the founders of new classical macroeconomics, alongside Robert Lucas, Jr. and Thomas J. Sargent~~~

God bless him~get the  Nobel Prize in economics

我猜是Halbert L. White, Jr吧，　美国加州拉荷亚加州大学圣地牙哥分校(University of California San Diego, La Jolla)经济系Chancellor's Associates杰出经济学教授

　　For their contributions to econometrics, specifically the Hausman specification test and the White standard errors test

不知中没中，因为我是计量的，嘿嘿

该轮到行为金融的经济学家啊