探讨：是什么真正推动了投资和消费的增长

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很多经济学家、专著、研究院所都在研究投资、消费、出口三者推动着中国经济的发展。目前是投资率居高不下，消费率尤其是居民消费率日益下降，出口是跳跃式增长，于是有了名家的增长动力缺乏、不可持续的论调。

在此，想和大家探讨这么一个问题：到底是什么因素推动了我们投资和消费的增长，即投资和消费的动力是什么？按照凯恩斯的观点是企业家的（animal spirits）血气冲动造成了投资，是否同样可以解释居民也是如此的推动了消费。

请各位同道中人见仁见智！

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关键词：spirits Spirit Animal 研究院所 增长动力 投资 探讨 消费

投资决定于投资的边际效率。消费决定于收入及收入预期。

同意楼上的说法，可是微观上这么说一点问题没有。在宏观上各个时期的投资和消费率波动都是很大的，各个不同时期不同的投资消费动力即使是如上所说，投资由投资边际效率，消费由收入和收入预期造成的。但是是怎么传到的啊？？

真的想知道，其实微观上的无规律性可能在宏观上可以有规律可寻。

请各位大侠指点迷津，不胜感激！！

资本累积，推动投资增长，收入上升，推动消费增加

从我国经济运行历史来看，消费较之投资的波动弱。投资的波动是我国经济波动的主要原因。

一、我国的消费波动仍表现得比成熟经济体的强。其中有改革开放初期、有1988年价格闯关改革、有近年对汽车与住房排浪式增长。这主要由于我国消费市场发展阶段决定的。

二、从理论上讲，投资的波动较之消费强。投资的决定于预期收入与成本的对比，特别是预期收入主要“受投资冲动”的驱动，波动性就很强。

三，我国投资波动还由于投资主体的体制原因。国有企业是企业吗？国有投资是投资吗？

富人钱多就要寻找投资渠道。

以下是引用guanjie在2006-11-28 19:15:00的发言：

从我国经济运行历史来看，消费较之投资的波动弱。投资的波动是我国经济波动的主要原因。

一、我国的消费波动仍表现得比成熟经济体的强。其中有改革开放初期、有1988年价格闯关改革、有近年对汽车与住房排浪式增长。这主要由于我国消费市场发展阶段决定的。

二、从理论上讲，投资的波动较之消费强。投资的决定于预期收入与成本的对比，特别是预期收入主要“受投资冲动”的驱动，波动性就很强。

三，我国投资波动还由于投资主体的体制原因。国有企业是企业吗？国有投资是投资吗？

所言极是啊！ 目前的数据和我们的经验都表明，我国居民消费率从78年到现在是很平直坡度很缓的下降。

个人认为投资波动强是因为我国不同时期采取的不同经济政策和发展战略!!在一个政府主导型的市场经济类型下，政府的政策引导作用不可忽视！

至于国企是不是企业的讨论，个人认为没多大关系。其实我们所说的投资主要还是固定资产投资，其中大多数还是政府可控的！

I think saving is a very important elements to boost the Chinese economy. This is the main reason that why China is able to maintain such a high growth rate of averagely 10.3% per year since 1970s.

There is another factor called Marginal product of labor and capital. The turbulence before 1970 has destroyed many capital and labor, and after 1970, a relatively stable environment accumilated labor, and the marginal product of capital is high since there is little labor left. And thus the investment rate outweigh the depreciation rate and thus boost the economy move to the steady state. What is more, the high saving rates will give momentum to the investment and keep the economy a high potential to increase.

However, the increase caused by saving and investment is contemporary, in order to maintain the high level of growth, it is the consumption matter. And this will relate to the farming problems. Chinese farmer has taken up quite a big part in the total population, so it is the demand-side policy to encourage the farmers to spend. And this will requrie a legal system to prtect the farmers and make the market for farmers grow in a healthy trend.

The investment also will increase because the effect from abroad. The foreign direct investment (FDI) is increasing throughout the recent years and this is also the major effect of the boost of Chinese economy.However, the increase in the foreign direct investment may be dangerous, with regard to the reason that the exchange rate is low and the consumption of the economy haven't gone up as fast as the investment and may cause the problem of overinvest, which will lead to inflaiton.

Thus, to sum up, the policy now needed is to increase the consumption rate of the economy and reduce some kind of investment, spend more on the welfare side and keep the economy develop in a less dangerouse way.

很 精辟的论述，受益良多，楼上总结了投资可从资本、劳动力等方面考虑，消费则需考虑储蓄、收入、出口这块了，很有启发！！

“I think saving is a very important elements to boost the Chinese economy. This is the main reason that why China is able to maintain such a high growth rate of averagely 10.3% per year since 1970s.”

but there is another question.the topic is which factors lead investment and consume increasing,not the issue of which elements of the high gowth of the whole economy.

thank you all the time!

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-11-30 16:10:41编辑过]

好像该论坛更像是一个享用无尽的资源库，没有建设成为探讨学问，迸发思想火花的平台。

建站的初衷就是这样吗？

不过能建成这样已经相当不容易了！

继续顶这个话题！！