Asia 2007 Outlook
花旗—2007亚太地区股市前景展望:由成长转向价值
(191页) 2006.12.08.pdf
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Contents
Regional Strategy, Economics and Quants 4
Asia/Pacific Strategy — The Big Switch: Goodbye Momentum, Hello Value 5
Asia/Pacific Economics — Yuan Leadership, Investment Recovery & Synchronized Cycles 11
Asia/Pacific Quants — Rotation Away from Momentum to Continue 17
Country Strategy 28
China — Large-Caps to Continue to Drive the Market Up 29
Hong Kong — Dogs of the HSI Could Still be Dogs 33
India — Stay Defensive 37
Indonesia — Market Looks for a New Theme: Interest Rates → Investment Cycle 41
Korea — Focus on Selectivity 45
Malaysia — 4Q Rally Should Be Sustained into Early 2007 49
Singapore — Expect Moderate Earnings Growth 53
Taiwan — A Turning Point for Politics and Market Performance 57
Thailand — No Boom; Lots of Fizzle 61
Sector Strategy 63
Autos & Auto Parts — More Upside Potential for China than India 65
Banks — Walking Uphill 67
Conglomerates — Structural Themes Remain 71
Consumer — Overweight: Be Selective, Watch Valuations 75
IT Services — Pricing and Consolidation Are Key Themes 79
Media & Internet — Play the Pioneers (and the Evergreen SPH) 83
Metals & Mining — Commodity Prices and Earnings to Peak 87
Oil & Gas — Focus on Petrochina and Upstream & Gas Plays in India 91
Property — China and Singapore Flying High; HK Unexciting 93
Semiconductors and TFT-LCDs — Investors Looking for Recovery After 1Q07 97
Small/Mid-Caps — Benign Interest Rates Increase Risk Appetite; Four Themes for 2007 101
Tech Hardware — PC, Taiwan Preferred; Cautious on Handsets, Korea, Singapore 105
Tech Strategy — Take Positions in PC and Semis Ahead of Upcycle in 2007E 109
Telecoms — Offensive and Defensive: A Unique Mix 115
Transportation — Take Profits in Airlines; Beware Capex at Airports and Overcapacity at Ports 119
Utilities — Better Regulatory Outlook for 2007 125
Asia Coverage Universe – By Country 127
Asia Coverage Universe – By Sector 142
Analyst Certification Appendix A-1 162