20111204 Follow Me 208 Fragile China

As for this article, one thing is for sure, to depend on our own. We have asked this many many times, but its result was not so good because we, as usuall, still are reluctant to consume. We have to cover all kinds of fee, in which the daily spending and housing would take up a majority. There is no reason for us not to save cause we have to survive and to promise our offsprings a better life. This is hard yet it is true. Domestic market is way bigger than we think, question is left to the government: how to make the ordinary get rich and encourge them to consume. And at meantime, somebody has got to cover their back.

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In view of export situation and the regulation of real estate, the economic outlook is really not optimistic in the coming years.I think the key lies in scarcity in domestic demand and lackage of investment channel.

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See it~~~

突然发现原来有在别的看过中文版。

中国应该转向新的增长模式

过去10年里，“中国放缓”这个概念似乎已变成一个矛盾措辞。但中国昨日发布的制造业活动数据显示，情况已经发生了变化。官方的11月采购经理人指数(PMI)跌至49。自2009年2月以来，中国制造业首次出现收缩，而前景也不见得更加光明。瑞银(UBS)经济学家预计，明年初中国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增幅将降至7.7%，远低于今年全年预期将实现的9.3%的增幅。

这其中的原因有一部分是国内的。虽然建筑业保持相对活跃，但房地产销售已大幅减少，开发商正在推迟新项目。这意味着建筑业热潮也许正接近尾声。

不过，欧元区危机也具有同等的重要性。北京方面的增长模式在很大程度上仍是出口导向型的，而中国的头号贸易伙伴正是欧盟。尽管有很多关于亚洲“脱钩”的言论，但中国和欧洲在经济上仍是紧密联系在一起的。

为应对低迷形势，中国ZF已放松了货币政策，第一步是降低银行存款准备金率0.5个百分点。这相当于向银行体系注入4000亿元人民币（合630亿美元），以求增强各银行的放贷能力。此举不太可能收到重大效果，而且很可能不会把资金引向正确方向。资金不太可能流向复苏必须依靠的中小企业。

目前的担忧是，经济放缓可能鼓励北京方面决定出台又一套刺激计划（类似于2009年的那套计划），同时放弃让人民币升值的意图，以求保护本国出口企业。

这两个举措都将适得其反。新的刺激措施将导致房价再次上涨，而北京方面现在努力遏制房价上涨的做法是正确的。刺激措施还可能引发新一轮消费价格通胀。在食品价格每年上涨12%的情况下，这是一个真正令人担心的问题。与此同时，压低人民币汇率只会给已经在挣扎的欧美经济带来更大压力，削弱它们吸收中国商品的能力。

对北京方面来说，更好的出路将是找到非货币政策手段来促进国内消费。这意味着继续让人民币升值，同时把家庭部门作为任何财政刺激的对象。

中国转向一种新的增长模式，显然将造福于世界经济。但这也将符合中国自身的利益。

译者/和风

"Just as important, however, is the crisis in the eurozone. Beijing’s growth model is still largely export-led and its main trade partner is the European Union." -- It seems that Australian economy is some kind of connecting with China. So I just wonder what will happen to Australia.  Will the price of the metal and the meat decrease?

"The money is unlikely to reach the small and medium-sized enterprises upon which a recovery must depend." &" A new stimulus would re-inflate real estate prices" These are really serious problems. But our government can not just give out the money to those companies that need it, which means there might be some problems in our system. It seems that we are facing a dilemma. So what will the policies do our government publish next? I'm waiting for them.

"Just as important, however, is the crisis in the eurozone. Beijing’s growth model is still largely export-led and its main trade partner is the European Union." -- It seems that Australian economy is some kind of connecting with China. So I just wonder what will happen to Australia.  Will the price of the metal and the meat decrease?

"The money is unlikely to reach the small and medium-sized enterprises upon which a recovery must depend." &" A new stimulus would re-inflate real estate prices" These are really serious problems. But our government can not just give out the money to those companies that need it, which means there might be some problems in our system. It seems that we are facing a dilemma. So what will the policies do our government publish next? I'm waiting for them.

good

中国的经济能继续持续的增长只能靠中小企业存活并增长.中小企业要想存活,只能加强对其相应宽松的信贷制度;中小企业要想增长,只能为其培养产业升级的良好氛围;要想培养产业升级的氛围,只能更加明晰产权制度,加强知识产权保护,要想加强知识产权保护,只能健全法制,降低寻租,收回ZF立法权(如各类税法).........我们的zf职能的到位,不能一蹴而就..