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HSBC 76页 2011年12月16日报告
In Latam, we brace for a more volatile
start to 2012, assess potential funding
and FX stresses from the European
crisis, and offer in-depth views on the
CLP and MXN
In Asia, we answer the top 10 questions
investors are asking about the offshore
RMB (CNH), and assess the outlook for
the INR
In EMEA, we look at the potential impact
political developments in Russia may
have on the RUB, and look at the
currency and rate outlooks in S. Africa
All roads lead to Europe
European problems remain a strong challenge for emerging
market (EM) currencies. The latest EU summit somewhat
disappointed markets and USD liquidity pressures remain
strong. As long as concerns surrounding the eurozone
continue, then this will pose a risk to EM currencies.
Meanwhile, there is also concern that heading into the “turn”
of the year, we could see USD liquidity pressures intensify
even further, thereby posing a greater headwind against EM
currencies. EM central banks will be mindful of these risks,
and will likely provide USD liquidity locally where it’s
deemed necessary, we believe. Indeed Brazil’s central bank
has already stepped up in this regard.
The old models of value investing or trading currencies on
growth and interest rate differentials seem now to be but a
charming relic. Meanwhile, many fund managers remain on
the sidelines, holding large cash reserves while they watch
political developments in Europe unfold. In this uncertain
environment, short-term tactical trades remain de rigueur.
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