CICC-2012 Metals Investment Strategy

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Action
With China’s growth slowing and Europe’s debt approaching another concentrated maturity next Spring, we advise investors to
take a relatively cautious stance and a more trading-orientated strategy to capture any upswings triggered by potential policy
easing or progress in European debt solutions. Based on fundamentals, we favor environmental protection and new material
stocks (mostly A shares) that will benefit from China’s economic restructuring and policy support, gold stocks supported by the
chaotic global monetary system and minor metal stocks with tightening supply, and base metal stocks, in that order. We
downgrade Chenzhou Mining (A-share) to ACCUMULATE and initiate coverage on Kazakhmys-H at ACCUMULATE.
Reasoning
Capture structural trends and search for stocks in emerging industries with earnings or policy supports. We will follow
the three major trends arising from China’s economic restructuring: High-end equipment and military manufacturing, energy
saving and environmental protection, and consumption upgrading, and seek the biggest beneficiaries with high technical
barriers to entry, structural growth potential, or strong policy support.
Remain positive on gold shares, but see them range-bound near term. Medium-to-long term, global monetary system
disorder, renminbi internationalization and China’s retail investment demand will support gold prices. The US’s 2004~06
rate-hike cycle suggests gold prices may not fall even if real interest rates climb, especially if long-term inflation expectations
rise. If gold prices stay elevated, gold shares with visible output and resource growth could outperform gold prices.
Tightening supply of minor metals will bring catalysts to related stocks。。。。。

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