China electricity data ring alarm bells

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中国用电量下降“值得警惕” China electricity data ring alarm bells
英国《金融时报》 乔希•诺布尔 报道
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中文评论[38条打印[url=mailto:@?subject=Recommend an Article to you&body=Dear Friend, %0a%0d%0a%0dI saw this article on FTChinese.com, I think you might be interested: %0a%0d%0a%0dhttp://www.ftchinese.com/story/001043072 %0a%0d%0a%0dBest Regards, %0a%0d]电邮[/url]收藏 腾讯微博新浪微博

According to the China Securities Journal, Chinese electricity use dropped 7.5 per cent year on year in January.	据《中国证券报》(China Securities Journal)报道，中国1月用电量同比下降7.5%。
Sure, it was during Chinese New Year, but, according to Nomura, the statistic looks “alarming”.	当然，这一时间恰逢中国春节，但据野村(Nomura)称，这一统计数据“值得警惕”。
Here’s Nomura’s chart, with a production estimate based on the published consumption figure:	如下是野村的图表，包括根据已发布的用电量数字进行的发电量估计：
And as Nomura puts it:
In the last 10 years CNY [Chinese New Year] has often fallen in different months in consecutive years, which leads to swings (trough to peak in Figure 1) in the year-on-year data. However, we have not (ex-2009) seen an actual decline in electricity production since 2002. We therefore believe that this drop reflects a sharp slowdown in industrial production.	野村评论道：
If the figures do prove correct, then expect some challenging PMI readings in the months ahead. Nomura has yet to alter its forecast for first quarter growth in China, but then it already has a pretty low prediction of 7.5 per cent. Others forecasting 8 per cent and more may be in for a shock.	“过去10年中，春节通常在相连的年份落在不同月份，这导致同比数据出现震荡（图1中的波谷到波峰）。然而，自2002年以来，我们从未遇到过发电量实际下降的情况（2009年除外）。因此我们相信，此次下降反映出工业产出的大幅下降。”
	如果上述估计是正确的，那么预计在未来几个月的采购经理指数(PMI)将不容乐观。野村还没有调整对中国第一季度的增长预测，但其预测已经相当低了，为7.5%。其他预测8%或更高的人恐怕会大吃一惊。
	译者/方舟

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关键词：Electricity Electric China Alarm Elect 新浪微博 中国证券 published 腾讯微博 Journal