中银国际：The Raw and the Cooked

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中银国际：The Raw and the Cooked　　　

17 January 2007　　　(Wednesday)　　１２页　　英文

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2007-1-18 09:10:00 上传

中银国际：The Raw and the Cooked
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The Cooked
Greentown China – Outperform............................................... 2
(3900.HK/HK$15.40; TP: HK$20.28) Neo ZHANG
Initiating Coverage — Greentown China is the largest developer in Zhejiang
Province. Leveraging on the Yangtze River Delta’s affluent populace, the
company delivers one of the highest returns on equity (ROE) and
development margins in the industry. After its initial public offering (IPO) in
July 2006, Greentown has accelerated its expansion with aggressive
acquisitions of land and through strategic cooperation with various parties.
We see great potential for this nationalising regional player. We initiate
coverage with an Outperform call.
Zhengzhou Yutong Bus – Outperform...................................... 4
(600066.SS/Rmb16.24; TP: HK$20.05􀂩) Eric HU, CFA
Earnings Change — We believe Zhengzhou Yutong Bus (ZYB) has
successfully completed negotiations with the China Export and Credit
Insurance Corporation (CECIC) for a huge export order. The company will
deliver a total of 5,000 buses to Cuba through the CECIC during 2007-09. As
ZYB has secured the Cuban order, we have revised up our earnings forecasts
by 18% for 2007 and 33% for 2008.
The Raw
Neo-China Group – Outperform................................................ 5
(0563.HK/HK$1.27; TP: HK$1.78􀂩) Ken YEUNG, CFA
Results Comment — Neo-China yesterday reported that its turnover for the
first half of its fiscal year to 30 April 2007 increased 59x to HK$1,979m, while
its net profit attributable to shareholders tripled to HK$401m. We have
revised up slightly our FY07 and FY09 earnings forecasts due to the results
and the newly acquired Chengdu projects.
Shenhua Energy – Outperform................................................. 7
1088.HK/HK$19.18; TP: HK$24.17􀂩) Lawrence LAU, CFA
Company Update — We have raised our 2006-08 earnings forecasts for
Shenhua Energy by 1-3% after factoring in a larger volume of outsourced coal
and higher-than-expected power generation after updating our model with
the company’s full-year operating statistics. We have also increased our 2007E
NAV projection to HK$16.02 from HK$15.83. We reaffirm our Outperform
call on Shenhua Energy and raise our target price from HK$21.37 to HK$24.17,
representing a 10% premium to the 2006E fully diluted P/E of the company’s
recently listed closest comparable.
Government approves Dongfeng car financing plan................ 9
(0489.HK/HK$4.49, OP) Eric HU, CFA
Snippet — Dongfeng Motor Group has secured government approval to set
up a Rmb500m car financing venture with Nissan Motor to boost sales in
China, according to a report in The Standard.
Chalco subsidiaries secure share reform approvals................ 9
(2600.HK/HK$7.27, U) Belle CHAN
Snippet — Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd (Chalco) has announced that
the shareholders of Shandong Aluminum and Lanzhou Aluminum have, as
we had expected, approved the two companies’ share reform proposals at

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