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题目 | Costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence | |||
作者 | Glenn Hoggarth* Ricardo Reis** Victoria Saporta* | |||
出版 | Working papers www.bankofengland.co.uk/wp/index.html | |||
行业背景 |
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方法 | 计量 | Y | 方法 | regression |
案例 |
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纯理论 |
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数据来源 |
| 数据类型 | cross-sectional | |
主题 | measuring the potential costs of banking crises | |||
一、 银行危机带来两种成本（Fiscal costs，Output losses）
（一）Fiscal costs
1、定义
Fiscal costs reflect the various types of expenditure involved in rehabilitating the financial system, including both bank recapitalization and payments made to depositors, either implicitly or explicitly through government-backed deposit insurance schemes.
2、测量
3、一些结论
Resolution costs appear to be particularly high when banking crises are accompanied by currency crises.
The cumulative resolution costs of banking crises appear to be larger in emerging market economies (on average 17½% of annual GDP) than in developed ones (12%).
Fiscal costs of banking resolution seem to be larger in countries where bank intermediation – proxied by bank credit/GDP – is higher.
（二）Output losses
1、定义
Welfare losses to the economy associated with a banking crisis are usually proxied by losses in GDP – comparing GDP during the crisis period with some estimate of potential output.
2、测量
传统方式 | Compare GDP during the crisis period with some estimate of potential output. All the estimates of output losses during crises reported above use the difference between the level (or growth) in output and its past trend. |
本文的改进方式 | Measure the output gaps that occurred during these same periods for similar countries that did not experience banking crises, or at least, endured less severe ones. |
3、测量的关键问题
（1）benchmark country
The criteria we use to define a matching country were (i) close regional proximity implying, inter alia, the likelihood of proneness to similar shocks; (ii) similar level of GNP per capita; and (iii) similar structure of output (measured by the shares of manufacturing, primary production (‘agriculture’) and services in GDP).
（2）区分原因
Banking sector problems are most likely to occur in recessions. Its a crucial issue to decide whether Output losses are caused by the banking crises, and are thus costs of banking crises, or whether recession caused the crises.
（三）本文用Output losses替代以往多数文章采用的Fiscal costs来测量银行危机造成的成本。
二、两种成本存在一定的tade-off
Also, large fiscal costs may be incurred to forestall a banking crisis or, at least, limit its effect. In this case, the overall costs to the economy may be small; and if the crisis were avoided it would not be observed, but significant fiscal costs might have been incurred. The precise method and speed of fiscal resolution may be more important than the costs incurred per se in determining the length and thus the output cost of crisis.
Conversely, the government may incur only small fiscal costs, and yet the broader economic adverse effects of a banking crisis could be severe.（例子是1933年美国大萧条）
三、结论
Our cross-country estimates of output losses during banking crises are, on average,
large – around 15% to 20% of annual GDP.
Output losses are usually much larger in the event of a twin banking/currency crisis than if there is a banking crisis alone, particularly in emerging market countries.
We found that banking crises but not currency crises significantly affected output in developed countries, while the opposite was true in emerging market countries.
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