英文书名: How We decide(中文译文:为什么大猩猩比专家高明?)
How We Decide by Jonah Lehrer read by David Colacci
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本帖隐藏的内容
- how we decide.pdf
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以下都抄自网络,非我所写:
这本书是源于这样的一个事实:上世纪90年代初,加州大学伯克利分校的心理学家菲利普•泰洛克(Philip Tetlock)开始了一个研究项目。他挑选了284个以“评论政治经济现状,预测政治经济趋势,为政策制定提供建议”为生的专家,让他们对一系列未来事件做出预测。他问了一长串敏感问题。乔治•布什会再次当选吗?南非的种族隔离问题会和平解决吗?魁北克会脱离加拿大吗?互联网泡沫会破灭吗?在每种情况下,专家们被要求评定几种结果发生的可能性。泰洛克然后询问了专家们的思考过程,以便能更好地了解他们是如何做决定的。研究结束时,泰洛克得到了82 361个不同的量化预测数据。
从泰洛克对数据的统计分析结果中,可以看出专家们的预测显然失败了。尽管他们凭借敏锐的时事洞察力获得报酬,他们的表现还不如随机猜测。泰洛克的大多数问题有三个可能的答案,平均而言,专家们选择正确答案的比例低于33%。换句话说,一只黑猩猩随便选一个答案,也会打败绝大多数专家。泰洛克还发现,他的研究中名气最大的专家往往预测最不准确,都显得狂妄自大和过度自信。他们反倒为名气所累。 原来专家也不过是普通人,他们做出的决定也没有高明到哪里去。那么做为普通人,我们要想做出正确的决定,应该注意什么呢?莱勒告诉我们结果——了解自己大脑的运作、了解大脑做决定的机制。与大脑一关联,好像问题就变得高深了,大多数读者并没有生物学或医学的知识储备,但不用担心了,莱勒是在讲故事。
正如《怪诞行为学》的作者丹·艾瑞里所赞誉:“乔纳•莱勒巧妙地将神经科学、体育、战争、心理学以及政治编织成一本有关人类决策的故事。在这一过程中,他让我们变得聪明多了。”除艾瑞里外,《长尾理论》和《免费》的作者克里斯·安德森既为莱勒讲故事的方式折服,也深受他的结论的启发:“我们该听从直觉还是分析?答案是——莱勒在这本睿智的、读起来很有意思的书中指出,取决于情境。知道哪种方法最适合哪种情境,不仅有用,而且好玩。乔纳•莱勒再次证明了:他是位讲故事的大师,也是新神经科学实用课程最好的启蒙者之一。”
英文简介:
The first book to use the unexpected discoveries of neuroscience to help us make the best decisions.
Since Plato, philosophers have described the decision-making process as either rational or emotional: we carefully deliberate, or we blink and go with our gut. But as scientists break open the mind's black box with the latest tools of neuroscience, they re discovering that this is not how the mind works. Our best decisions are a finely tuned blend of both feeling and reason and the precise mix depends on the situation. When buying a house, for example, it's best to let our unconscious mull over the many variables. But when we're picking a stock, intuition often leads us astray. The trick is to determine when to use the different parts of the brain, and to do this, we need to think harder (and smarter) about how we think.
Jonah Lehrer arms us with the tools we need, drawing on cutting-edge research as well as the real-world experiences of a wide range of deciders from airplane pilots and hedge fund investors to serial killers and poker players. Lehrer shows how people are taking advantage of the new science to make better television shows, win more football games, and improve military intelligence. His goal is to answer two questions that are of interest to just about anyone, from CEOs to firefighters: How does the human mind make decisions? And how can we make those decisions better?