20120417 Follow Me341 China Loosens Grip on Yuan

It is indeed a big step on the road of exchange rate system reform. The strange system is not line up with the economic scale at present. The currency system was not activated yet even we have so much Foreign Currency Reserve. It is very awkward because no one know how to use so huge a foreign exchange.
Widing the band of flcutation is critical to carry forward and propel the opening of capital account. It link up with the whole financial system such as the QFII and QDII, so many wealth in Chinese should have the channel to use. let people's natural behavior play a greater role will bring more benefit than what we can imagine.

What happens next amounts to a market vote on whether the yuan is overvalued, undervalued or close to its fair value. If the yuan trades at the upper limits of the band, it shows markets believe the yuan has room to rise. If the upward pressure is persistent, it could make Beijing reluctant to loosen further. A downward push, meanwhile, could indicate investor nervousness over China's slowing economy and the possibility of capital flight if China further loosens its capital restrictions.
接下来会发生的是市场来决定人民币汇率是否被高估，低估或接近其市场预估值。如果人民币交易在波动范围的上限，显示市场相信人民币有升值空间。如果升值的压力持续存在，北京方面估计不愿意进一步放松货币措施。与此同时，如果向空，表明投资者可能会担心如果中国进一步放宽其资本限制,中国经济增长将放缓,资本将会外流.
Currency-market watchers said the move was one of the most significant since mid-2010, when China first allowed the yuan to freely trade beyond its borders, leading to the creation of an offshore market in the city of Hong Kong.
货币市场观察家说此举是自2010年年中以来最重要的举措之一，中国首次允许人民币自由交易,跨越国界，从而创造了在香港以外收割的金融交易城市。
"The renminbi is undergoing a regime change," said Daniel Hui, senior foreign-exchange strategist at HSBC Holdings PLC, pointing to the potential for "less consistent appreciation, increasing flexibility and volatility, and faster liberalization."
The magnitude of the trading-band expansion came at the top end of market expectations. The last time the band was widened was in May 2007, when it was increased to 0.5% from 0.3%.
汇丰控股高级外汇战略家丹尼尔说:“人民币正处于一个转型时期”，指出“人民币走势不太明朗，灵活性和波动性增加，和自由化加快。"交易波动幅度的扩大来自于市场预期的提升。交易范围最近一次扩大是在2007年5月,从0.3％上升至0.5％。
Companies and investors are bracing for the expected greater volatility in the yuan's exchange rate. Until recently, most businesses and investors had viewed the yuan as a surefire bet to rise in value, but that view has changed as China's trade surpluses have declined. Analysts at HSBC and elsewhere recently dialed back their expectations for yuan appreciation this year to less than 2% from a previous forecast of roughly 3%. The currency gained 4.7% last year against the dollar and has jumped about 25% since its revaluation in 2005. It has dipped 0.14% against the dollar so far this year.
公司和投资者正在为预期重更大的人民币汇率而挣扎。直到最近，大多数企业和投资者都赌定人民币汇升值，但使今天这一观点已经发生改变，因为中国的贸易顺差额有所下降。汇丰银行和其他地方的分析师最近对于人民币升值的预期降低，预计今年升值不到2％，而之前预测在3％左右。货币在上一年上涨4.7％，而兑美元的汇率自2005年汇率改革以来上升了25％左右。但是今年到目前为止兑美元已经下降了0.14％。

winroyal 发表于 2012-4-17 16:29
It is indeed a big step on the road of exchange rate system reform. The strange system is not line u ...

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Some companies have started or are considering putting in place complex derivatives trades to protect themselves against both a rise and a fall in the yuan. For instance, ZTE Corp., 000063.SZ -1.87%a Hong Kong-listed Chinese manufacturer of telecommunications equipment that derives about half its sales from overseas, plans to invest this year up to $2 billion in derivatives products to guard against foreign-exchange risks, following a similar investment it made last year, according to the company's public filings last month.
一些公司已经开始或者是正在考虑定位到复杂的衍生品交易当中，以防止人民币的上涨或下跌。例如，根据上个月的公共文件,在香港上市的中兴通讯股份有限公司大约一半的销售额来自海外的电信设备制造商的计划和去年的投资方式相似,今年准备投资防范外汇衍生产品的2亿美元,来抵御外来交易的风险.
China Pharmaceutical is one of the companies that have used such derivatives products to hedge against yuan appreciation. But now, given the increased two-way fluctuations in the yuan's value, Mr. Cai, the chairman and chief executive, said the company will consider engaging in derivatives transactions to bet on both a rise and a fall in the Chinese currency.
中国制药是利用这类衍生产品应对人民币升值风险的公司之一。但该公司主席兼首席执行官蔡东晨说鉴于人民币双向波动情况的增多，公司将考虑从事衍生产品的交易，以应对人民币的涨跌。
"We've made a lot of money from buying derivative products to just bet on renminbi appreciation," Mr. Cai said. "Now we need to factor in the downside potential."
蔡先生说：”我们已经花费很多钱购买衍生产品来赌人民币升值。 “但是现在我们必须考虑到其下跌的潜力。”
Analysts say the central bank's move is aimed as much at domestic officials as foreign-exchange traders and companies. The central bank has been lobbying for some time to liberalize trading in the yuan, while prominent academics—who often speak for the central bank—have been arguing in public to let the yuan fully float. But China rarely takes steps as dramatic as going to a fully floating exchange rate in one big step.
分析人士说，央行此举旨在针对国内外汇交易商和公司官员。央行致力于放宽人民币交易一段时间.而著名学者常说，央行已公开指出让人民币完全自由波动。但中国很少采取措施,让汇率完全自由浮动。

The central bank reports both to the State Council and the Communist Party's central committee. Both institutions need to be convinced that a free-floating exchange rate won't harm the Chinese economy and will help in eliminating the build-up of foreign reserves, which is widely recognized as becoming an economic and political problem.
央行同时向国务院和共产党中央委员会报购。这两个机构必须确认这个自由浮动汇率的措施将不会损害到中国的经济，有利于消除外汇储备的增长，在经济和政治问题上都广泛认可。

mu_lianzheng 发表于 2012-4-17 17:46
您好,今天晚上可以由恁来发Follow Me 342吗?

No problem, it is my great honor to do that.

感谢楼主的分享与二楼的翻译

andy202523 发表于 2012-4-17 22:10
感谢楼主的分享与二楼的翻译

主要是翻译很累

shenxiaoqiang 发表于 2012-4-17 22:12
主要是翻译很累

恩恩

It is a  trial to allow for more market influence on the exchange rate, which may show the magnitude of market reactions and the moving direction of the rate, upward or downward.