Bayesian Decision Theory and the Representation of Beliefs

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2007-2-15 01:01:00 上传

Bayesian Decision Theory and the Representation of Beliefs
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<br></P><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>
<P align=left>In this paper, I present a Bayesian decision theory and de</FONT><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>fi</FONT><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>ne choice-based subjective</P>
<P align=left>probabilities that faithfully represent Bayesian decision makers’ prior and posterior</P>
<P align=left>beliefs regarding the likelihood of the possible e</FONT><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>ff</FONT><FONT face=Dcr10 size=3>ects contingent on his actions. I argue</P>
<P align=left>that no equivalent results can be obtained in Savage’s (1954) subjective expected</P>
<P align=left>utility theory and give an example illustrating the potential harm caused by ascribing</P>
<P>to a decision maker subjective probabilities that do not represent his beliefs.</P></FONT>

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-3-2 4:55:18编辑过]

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关键词：Presentation Presentatio represent Bayesian Decision equivalent potential regarding represent obtained

能不能便宜点，实在太贵了。你定价也应该先用博弈论分析一下，怎么定价才最好，呵呵。

贵了
呵呵

good ths u ok

pls go to http://www.pinggu.org/bbs/thread-48424-1-1.html
it is good for you

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