20120507 Follow Me 360 The not-for-profit sector

Banks are holding large amount of capital searching for profit. The traditional save and lend cannot satisfy those bankers' appetite. So the capital began to go to high-yield field via investment banks. The loss starts when the economy goes down and when the structure of those financial products goes beyond control. In China, banking is still one of the top profitable industries. But how the risk monitoring and relative regulations are developing?

liujianfang 发表于 2012-5-7 16:00
难度很大，求翻译的

The not-for-profit sector
非营利行业

NARY a cucumber sandwich was thrown and the heckling was rather subdued. But the genteel rebellion over executive pay at the Barclays shareholders’ meeting in London last month, an echo of similar disquiet at annual meetings in America (see article), shows how fed up bank investors have become with their returns.
连一个青瓜三明治都没被扔掷，诘问也被相当地抑制了。但上个月在伦敦举行的巴克莱银行股东会议上有节制地对高管薪酬的反对--美国年度会议上的类似不安的回声--表明银行投资者对他们的回报是有多么的不满。
No wonder. Between 2007 and the end of last year shareholders in banks globally have lost almost 10% of their investment each year, according to the Boston Consulting Group (see chart 1). Behind this international average lie some truly horrible losses. Investors who stuck it out in Dutch banks saw the value of their holdings fall by almost 28% a year. Holders of French, German and Swiss banks suffered average annual losses of close to 20%. Those in American and British banks lost 14% and 16% a year respectively. “The little secret to doing well…has been ‘just don’t hold banks’,” says Jacob de Tusch-Lec, a fund manager at Artemis.
不足为奇。根据波士顿咨询公司数据， 从2007年到去年年底，全球银行股东每年损失大约10%的投资（见表一）。除此之外，国际平均收益展现了一些真正的可怕的损失。荷兰银行的坚定投资者所持股份的价值每年大约贬值28%。法国、德国和瑞士的银行持股人平均每年遭受接近20%的损失。美国和英国银行分别损失14%和16%。“怎样做好的小秘密就是...‘别持银行股票就对了’”。Artemis的基金管理人 Jacob de Tusch-Lec说。
A fall in the price of an asset is usually a good signal to consider buying it. But those investors who thought that they had timed the bottom of the market have been proved wrong again and again. “I’ve been dipping in and out of Italian banks but am keeping very quiet about it,” says one fund manager. “Last year when I told an investor [in my fund] that I was holding some he got up and left the room.”
一种资产价格的下跌通常是考虑购买的一个好的信号。但那些认为成功瞄准市场谷底的投资者被一次又一次证明是错的。“我买进卖出意大利银行股票，但我对此缄默不言”，一位基金管理人说。“去年当我告诉一个投资者（在我的基金里）我持有一些（银行股票）时，他站起来离开了房间。”
Such sharp falls in shareholder value are not just distressing for investors. They should also worry the businesses and households that need a healthy banking system to keep credit flowing. If the shares and debt issued by banks are uninvestible, then over time the banking system will have to shrink or be nationalised.
股东利益如此暴跌不仅对投资者来说是种悲痛，那些需要一个健康的银行系统来维持信贷流动的商业和家庭也对此感到担忧。如果银行发行的股份和债券是不可投资的，那么随着时间的推移，银行系统必将萎缩或者国有化。
There are three reasons why the banks have been such a bad bet. The first is weakness in Western economies, which has led to elevated losses, subdued demand for credit and deleveraging by the banks themselves. With returns on assets remaining largely unchanged (this is a tough time to charge customers more), the industry’s total profits are likely to keep falling.
有三个原因导致银行成为坏的赌注。首先是西方经济的疲软，这导致了亏损上升、贷款需求减缓以及银行自身的减债。由于资产收益很大程度上是不变的（这是一个向消费者要更高价的艰难时期），整个行业的总体利润可能继续下滑。
A second reason is worries about sovereign defaults. In the second half of last year European banks sold virtually none of the long-term bonds that they use, alongside deposits, to finance loans. These markets have thawed slightly since the European Central Bank (ECB) provided more than 1 trillion Euro ($1.3 trillion) in three-year loans to European banks. But they are still fragile, partly because banks have pledged collateral to the ECB, leaving less to repay bondholders if a bank were to go bust. Simon Samuels, an analyst at Barclays, points out that almost five years since the start of the financial crisis, European banks are more dependent on state support than ever. “What we have, in effect, is nationalisation via the debt markets,” he says. “If you can’t get a private-sector debt model to work then there is no real investible equity.”
第二个原因是对主权违约的担忧。去年的下半年，欧洲银行事实上没有售出任何长期债券，这些债券和存款一道，被用于吸收贷款。市场从欧洲中央银行向欧洲各银行提供超过1万亿欧元（1.3万亿美元）的三年期贷款以后，得到了适度的缓解。但它们（银行）仍然很脆弱，部分原因在于各银行对欧洲央行质押担保，使得如果银行破产的话，留给股东的资产更少了。巴克莱银行分析师塞蒙•萨缪尔指出，金融危机开始后的大约五年时间后，欧洲的银行比任何时候对国家支持都更依赖。“实际上，我们在做的是通过债务市场使之（银行）国有化”，他说，“如果你无法获得一个可行的私营部门债务模型，那么没有股票是真正值得投资的。”
The weak economy and worries over the euro area are, with some luck, transient problems. Yet weighing on investors’ minds is a third concern: the impact that regulation will have on banks’ long-term profitability and the safety of their debt. Returns on equity have fallen precipitously, from about 15% before the crisis to below 10% now. British banks’ returns have slipped from almost 20% to about 5% last year (see chart 2).
经济低迷以及对欧元区的担忧，如果幸运的话，只是暂时性的问题。然而使投资者心烦意乱的是第三个原因：监管对银行长期盈利性和债务安全性的影响。权益回报率急剧下滑，从危机前15%到现在的低于10%。去年英国银行回报率从大约20%下滑到5%左右。（见表二）
A big reason is that banks have to hold much more equity as a buffer against losses. Simple arithmetics dictates that returns must fall. Other regulations to make banks safer also have a cost. Banks will have to hold many more liquid assets, which can be quickly sold. They are also being forced to stop profitable (if risky) activities such as proprietary trading.
一个重要的原因是，银行必须持有更多的权益作为对抗亏损的缓冲区。简单的算术就知道回报必定下降。其他是银行更安全的监管同样是有代价的。银行将必须持有更多的可以快速出售的流动资产。银行还被迫停止盈利性行为（如果是有风险的），比如自营交易。
Rules aimed at ring-fencing retail banks, “bailing in” bondholders and making banks easier to wind up if they fail are also pushing up banks’ funding costs and depressing returns. They are doing little to encourage investors to buy bank bonds. “If regulators told European banks to raise bail-in debt there would be a resounding clatter of pennies at the bottom of the tin but no folding money at all,” says the chairman of a large bank.
规定旨在用“围栅法”防护商业零售银行和bailing in股票持有者，以及使银行更易结束如果它们失败的话。这些规定也推升了银行集资成本并压制了回报。他们没做什么举措去鼓励投资者购买银行股票。“如果监管者告诉欧洲银行提高自救负债，那里会有响亮的硬币的响声从罐头的底部发出来，但一张纸币都没有”，一个大银行的主席这样说。
For all the gloom, most big banks are still forecasting (or at least aiming for) returns on equity of 12-15%, which would handily cover the cost of their capital. That would also be respectable by historical standards: Autonomous Research reckons that over the long term banks’ returns have averaged 10% in Britain and 9% in America. But it invites two questions.
对这些阴暗面，大部分大银行仍然将股票收益率预测（或者至少目标是）在可以方便地支付资金成本的12-15%。这从历史性标准来看也是具有相当数量的：“Autonomous Research测算英国长期银行回报平均在10%，美国在9%。但这导致两个问题。

The first is whether banks can attract investors with a combination of utility-like returns and bank-like volatility. Regulators hope better-capitalised banks will be less volatile and more attractive. More pragmatically, index-tracking investors may have little choice but to hold them.
第一，银行是否可以利用实用型的回报率和银行型的波动率相结合的方式来吸引投资者。监管者希望资金雄厚的银行能少点波动性、更有吸引力。更务实地说，追踪指数表现的投资者没有选择，除了持有它们。
The second is whether banks can juice their returns by managing costs better. There is plenty of room to do so, particularly in wholesale banking. The Boston Consulting Group reckons that investment banks can quickly cut 10-15% of fat in areas such as market data and exchange fees. Deeper savings can be made by reducing layers of management and title creep: it found that almost half of the staff in second-tier investment banks had the title of director or managing director compared with 20-30% among the better firms.
第二，银行是否可以通过更好地管理成本来增加回报。这里有很大的空间可以做，特别是批发银行业务。波士顿咨询集团估计投资银行可以快速在诸如市场数据和兑换费用这些领域削减10-15%的成本。更进一步的节约可以通过减少管理层级和头衔的怪现象来做到：二级投资银行接近一半的员工拥有经理或总经理的头衔，与之相比，更好的公司只有20-30%。
But banks do not have a great record as beancounters. European lenders have managed to reduce their overall cost-to-income ratio only to about 62% from 69% since the mid-1990s, an average improvement of 0.3% a year. Their current targets assume an average improvement of 2.7% a year over the next three years, a figure Mr Samuels thinks looks “far too ambitious”. To keep shareholders and creditors interested, they may have little choice.
但银行不是缺乏远见的官僚。欧洲银行从90年代中期开始，成功以平均每年0.3%的速度将总成本/收入比率从69%削减到62%。目前的目标是未来三年以平均每年2.7%的速度削减，萨缪尔先生认为这是一个“太过雄心”的数字。但为了使股东和债权人感兴趣，他们别无选择

哇，厉害，楼主，你靠这个就可以吃饭了，工作没问题了

看看

1. increase sales revenue
2. decrease cost
3. keep more funds
4. enhance confidence
That's panacea in recessions.

好的 谢谢！

NPE, interest.