巴克莱资本-中国及香港消费零售产业分析 44页 June 2012
CHINAAND HONG KONG RETAILERS
SSSbottoming out; time to accumulate retailers with pricing power or property
INVESTMENT SUMMARY: TIME TOACCUMULATE.....................................................................3
CHINA RETAILTRENDS.................................................................................................................7
Weaker SSS continuing in2Q.........................................................................................................7
Inventory levels arerising...............................................................................................................7
Margins are the majoroverhang for 2012.......................................................................................9
Well-placedcompanies..................................................................................................................10
Macro condition suggests2H betteroutlook...................................................................................13
HONG KONG RETAILTRENDS....................................................................................................14
April Hong Kong retailsales growth slowed on weaker sales as well as a base effect ..................14
Hong Kong sales growthmomentum may hold up slightly better than China in 2012;
the rest ofyear should see strongergrowth than April....................................................................16
VALUATION: TIME TOACCUMULATE..........................................................................................17
BELLE (1-OW; PT: HK$17.40,+38%) NEAR-TERM MARGIN PRESSURE BUT PLENTY
OFDRIVERS LONG-TERM...........................................................................................................20
GOLDEN EAGLE (1-OW; PT:HK$22.00; +36%): SSS ON TRACK TO REACH MID-TEENS INFY12..........................................................................................................................................22
LIFESTYLE (1-OW; HK$21.90;+31%): UPGRADED TO 1-OVERWEIGHT ...................................24
NEW WORLD DEPARTMENT STORE(2-EW; PT HK$5.30; +26%): TEENS SSS ON STOREREBRANDING...................................................................................................................28
PARKSON (1-OW; PT HK$12.6;+59%): LOWER EARNINGS IN 1Q, MORE CATALYST IN 2H ...30
SA SA (0178.HK; 1-OW;HK$5.20; +24%): REITERATE 1-OVERWEIGHT ....................................32