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DB 德银：中国黄金 China Gold
China Gold：Three catalysts to buy Zijin and Lingbao Gold
5 March 2007 ２０页 英文 ＰＤＦ
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Buy before the markets recover
We believe the recent equity correction combined with strong gold pricing outlook
offer attractive opportunities to accumulate Chinese gold names. We see three
major catalysts to drive equity prices, including a four-year global gold deficit,
growing geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing acquisitions. Zijin is our top pick in
the Chinese gold space.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of
DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to
request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
China Gold Current Events
Top picks
Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd (2899.HK),HKD4.99 Buy
Lingbao Gold Co Ltd (3330.HK),HKD7.23 Buy
Gold prices
80
90
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180
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03
Apr-03
Jun-03
Aug-03
Oct-03
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
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Feb-05
Apr-05
Jun-05
Aug-05
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Feb-06
Apr-06
Jun-06
Aug-06
Oct-06
Dec-06
300
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700
SGE Gold Price (LHS)
LME Gold Price (RHS)
RMB/g US$/oz
Upcoming events Date
Zijin FY06 Results
Hong Kong 08 Mar 2007
Lingbao FY06 Results
Hong Kong 18 Apr 2007
Related recent research Date
Zijin Mining Acquisitions
Julian Zhu 07 Feb 2007
Zijin Mining Strong Growth
Julian Zhu 29 Jan 2007
Is gold Still good
Julian Zhu 31 Aug 2006
Company
Industry Update Research
Global deficit and geopolitical uncertainties to support gold price
We anticipate an ongoing global gold deficit in the next few years due to depletion
of major mines and the scarcity of new mines, supporting gold prices in the long
term. However, in the short term, growing geopolitical risks such as the Iran
nuclear standoff will likely boost gold price.
Acquisitions offer upside potential to gold producers
Industry leaders, including Zijin and Lingbao Gold, have been leveraging favorable
government policies to consolidate the Chinese gold industry, most notably
through rapid expansion of gold reserves. We forecast long-term gold prices will
stay high, and believe that recent and upcoming mine acquisition
[此贴子已经被vbbill于2007-3-12 11:41:24编辑过]
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