Citigroup 花旗：中国消费品行业深度研究－估值风险降低(72页)

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Citigroup 花旗：中国消费品行业深度研究－估值风险降低(72页)

Consumption Function：China Consumer:

　　 Time to De-risk the Portfolio

1 March 2007 | 72 pages

Citigroup Global Markets | Equity Research

 Priced to perfection — We believe forward P/E multiples of 30-40x implies Chinese
consumer stocks are priced to perfection; any slippage in growth and a sharp derating
could occur. Whilst prospects are attractive (2007 sector growth of 28%), we
believe de-risking the portfolio is an appropriate move at this juncture.
 Action: shift to relative value — We recently raised target prices on Mengniu, Yurun
and Lianhua, of which the first two, along with Golden Eagle, are top picks.

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2007-3-14 07:48:00 上传

Citigroup 花旗：中国消费品行业深度研究－估值风险降低(72页)
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Contents
Regional consumer – key points & top calls 3
Chinese Consumption Stocks: De-risking the Portfolio 5
Valuation reflects the robust outlook 8
Differentiation is the key to re-risking the portfolio 9
Ranked on intrinsic qualities 10
Ranked on Porter’s 5 forces 11
Composite ranking overall 12
Regional Consumer Sector View 16
Company Snapshots – Top Picks 18
Golden Eagle Retail Group (3308.HK - HK$6.21; 1M) 19
Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK - HK$22.00; 1L) 21
China Yurun Food Group (1068.HK - HK$8.18; 1L) 23
Noble Group (NOBG.SI - S$1.36; 1H) 25
Esprit (0330.HK - HK$83.30; 1L) 27
Hite Brewery (000140.KS - W103,500; 1M) 29
CJ Corp (001040.KS - W97,800; 1L) 31
United Spirits (UNSP.BO - Rs784.65; 1L) 33
ITC (ITC.BO - Rs165.2; 3L) 37
Nestle India (NEST.BO - Rs941.75; 3L) 39
Tingyi (0322.HK - HK$8.88; 3L) 41
Tsingtao (0168.HK - HK$13.24; 3M) 43
Thai Beverage (TBEV.SI - S$0.27; 3L) 45
Global Consumer Sector Valuation by Region 47
Appendix A-1 64

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