原来是当年那片经典的原创论文,虽然花钱了,但是至少帮助其他人知道内容了
GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL
HETEROSKEDASTICITY
Tim BOLLERSLEV*
University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
Institute of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Received May 1985, final version received February 1986
A natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) process
introduced in Engle (1982) to allow for past conditional variances in the current conditional
variance equation is proposed. Stationarity conditions and autocorrelation structure for this new
class of parametric models are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation and testing are also
considered. Finally an empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the inflation rate is
presented.