瑞银：2012年9月欧洲证券市场投资策略报告（免费）

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Value is up 10% in a month ‘but’ it needs confidence to carry on
Cheap only works when investors are happy. But could QE3, the bottoming of US
House prices, tangible changes in the Euro area and infrastructure support from
China throw some confidence into the pot? If so, although we are up 10% already,
this rally may have legs. But pick your entry point - it could be a bumpy ride.
􀂄 Why continue to hunt for value? Crisis dislocations still exit
1) Quality is still expensive; 2) Valuation dispersion is still near March 09’s levels
(page 6); 3) Sector dispersion is high; 4) Defensives are at a peak to Cyclicals; 4)
The US is at a peak to Europe; and 5) Falling stock correlations in Europe flag a
good time for stock picking. As we suggested on 13th July, investors should
hedge an overweight in Quality with some value.
􀂄 Sectors: 65% have wider valuation dispersion than 2007
Valuation dispersion means a bigger pay back as things normalise and the gap
closes. Sectors with the biggest increase in dispersion since 2007: Food Retail,
Retail, Metals & Mining, Utilities and Real Estate (domestically titled or cyclical).
Those where dispersion has closed include: Household & Personal, Software,
Beverages and Consumer Durables (safe havens during the crisis).
􀂄 50 ways to leave your Quality: try laggards that look cheap versus peers
Stocks that underperformed in the crisis & since the 4th June low include: PSA,
Acciona, ENRC, Iberdrola, France Telecom, Delhaize, Metro, Kazakhmys,
Husqvarna, Tesco and more. Deutsche Boerse suffered from low stock market
volumes, but these are turning and Arnaud Giblat suggests buying it (page 4).

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关键词：投资策略报告 证券市场 投资策略 策略报告 市场投资 tangible although continue already

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好东西！

Thanks for sharing, printed and reading now