ML 美林：对A股市场泡沫的看法

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

ML 美林：对A股市场泡沫的看法

The beginning, not the end, of China’s asset price bubble

Investment Strategy | China 25 May 2007 11页

122701.pdf (186.11 KB)

2007-6-2 08:12:00 上传

ML 美林：对A股市场泡沫的看法

􀂄 How big is China’s A-share market bubble?
This question is as hot as the A-share itself. In our view, we are seeing the
beginning, not the end, of the A-share bubble. True, forward-looking P/Es at 37x
for 2007 and 29x for 2008 are already way above those for the H-share and other
emerging markets. But we think consensus earnings forecasts are overly
conservative (p4: Chart 3 and Table 2; p5: Charts 4 and 5). As long as there is no
fundamental deterioration in the earnings outlook, there should not be any derating
of the A-share market. As long as there is no de-rating, we believe the Ashare
market bubble will get bigger in the coming 6-12 months, swelled by
liquidity and investors irrational exuberance. Already, we note that the bubble is
starting to cross over into the property market in China and the H-share market in
Hong Kong.
Government intervention to limit bubble size
The best way to prevent the bubble from getting bigger is for the People’s Bank of
of China (PBOC) to contain liquidity by hastening its hike of reserve requirement
ratio, the Ministry of Finance to increase stamp duties for stock trading, and
further down the road, to impose capital gains tax at different rates for different
durations of stock holdings.
Market volatility won’t have much negative wealth effect
Official cooling down measures have come slower than what we have anticipated,
but are still likely to be implemented within the coming six months, which will
cause market correction. Also, market sentiment could be hurt by US concerns
from time to time or possible tension with Taiwan early next year.
Concerns over negative wealth effect should not be exaggerated, in our view

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：A股市场 市场泡沫 Conservative intervention Anticipated 看法 泡沫 美林