谁能获得2004年诺贝尔经济学奖？

巴罗基本上没戏了。除非诺奖明年继续给增长领域的，兴许还有一点戏。比如P.Romer and Barro, or Dixit and Barro

以下是引用一刹春在2004-10-11 22:06:54的发言：

两个人都在商学院，尤其是普雷斯科特，03年从享有盛名，博士生教育极其艰苦严格的明尼苏达转到了亚利桑那，拿到了亚利桑那大学Carey商学院经济系的最高讲席，好像也不教书了，93年以后就很少发表文章了；基德兰德还好些，至少还承担了一门研究生课程和三门本科生课程的教学任务。我是不是可以说这两位大人的学术生涯到此结束，从此就大把大把赚钱了？

当然，两位对宏观经济学的贡献是不可磨灭的！

另，亚利桑那大学就是即将进行的克里和布什的第三场辩论的举办地。

2个都在所谓的商学院情况有些特殊。 因为CMU的经济系不在文理学院（也许这个学校没有文理学院？），而在其工业与管理学院。这个学院可曾是经济学的重镇，其经济系和金融系盛产很多高水平的学者。诺奖得主西蒙长期任教于此，LUCAS的学术生涯也是从这里开始的。

普雷斯科特去年离开明尼苏达大学经济系是一件很轰动的事情，Edward C. Prescott据说是和明尼苏达大学的某些领导不和而离开的，离开的时机也选择的非常耐人寻味，Prescott是在去年诺奖颁发前2周离开明尼苏达大学的。他在离开之前给经济系的所有老师和博士生都发了电子邮件。其实，Prescott去ASU也是一件很偶然的事情，因为他不是很在乎去哪儿，就是想给明尼苏达的某些人一个难堪，加之ASU动手很快，学校也大力想加强经济系，所以就把他挖到了。 其实NYU的经济系也很有钱，也在大肆挖人，但显然这是他们的一个失误，后来在P。KEHOE的指引下，他们挖到了SARGENT，也算是不错。 其实，要论搞学术而言，NYU经济系的环境还是比ASU强很多的。

尽管去年Prescott没能得奖，今年终于获奖了，这对缔造新古典宏观经济学的明尼苏达大学经济系而言无疑是一大损失！ LUCAS、WALLACE 、SIMS、SARGENT。。。。。等新古典宏观的大牛都曾任教于此。

ASU的经济系也是设在商学院，不在文理学院。最近几年也在狂挖人，但是其经济系的根基还是比较薄弱。

http://wpcarey.asu.edu/top/departments.cfm

Academic Departments

Accountancy Economics Finance Health Management & Policy Information Systems Management Marketing Supply Chain

ASU的经济系现在设立了6名讲座教授，除了Prescott为首席教授。值得一提的是还有一位华人——周林（同时任清华大学特聘教授）任该系的Lincoln Professor of Ethics 。

（Lin Zhou Lincoln Professor of Ethics [Economics] Professor [Economics] Biographical Information Professor Lin Zhou joined ASU in 2001 as a Lincoln Professor of Ethics. He has taught at Yale University, Duke University, and City University of Hong Kong before coming to ASU. In addition, he has been a visiting faculty member of many institutions around the world, including UAB in Spain, CORE in Belgium, HKUST in Hong Kong, Monash University in Australia, and Osaka University in Japan.

Professor Zhou obtained his bachelor degree in mathematics from Fudan University in 1982 and his Ph.D. degree in economics from Princeton University in 1989. His teaching responsibilities and primary research interests are microeconomic theory, game theory, and social choice and welfare. He has published many articles in some leading economics journals such as Econometrica, Review of Economics, and Journal of Economic Theory. He is currently an associate editor for Mathematical Social Sciences, and Social Choice and Welfare.）

楼上所提到的 Prescott 93年之后很少发文章的说法好象与事实不符。 其实看看其简历就知道了，93年之后Prescott除了几次荣誉演讲之外，至少还写了2篇很重要的文章：

“Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development,” with S. L. Parente, Journal of Political Economy 102, 298-321, April 1994.

“Malthus to Solow,” with G. D. Hansen, American Economic Review 92(4), 1205-17, September 2002.

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-10-12 10:27:34编辑过]

以下是引用闲人在2004-10-12 7:21:47的发言： 巴罗基本上没戏了。除非诺奖明年继续给增长领域的，兴许还有一点戏。比如P.Romer and Barro, or Dixit and Barro

BARRO以后还是有戏吧。不过其最最有影响的工作并不是在经济增长领域。

“What Will Robert Barro Be Remembered For?: If Robert Barro had retired in 1975 he'd still be remembered for his "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?" today. His accomplishments since 1975, however, are just as impressive. He's had an incredibly productive career and has made a number of contributions to the science of Economics.”

http://economics.about.com/cs/nobelwinners/p/barro.htm

无论怎么说，经济增长也算是整个经济理论的一个大热门，尽管某些时候偏冷，但可能是积蓄更大的能量。若干年后，AGHION和HOWITT获奖也许都不会令人奇怪。

很多人都觉得，O HART 及SANDY GROSSMAN应该以其对契约理论的贡献获奖。按贡献来说，确实应该。

以下是引用一刹春在2004-10-11 22:13:29的发言： 还有，为什么Arizona State U.大肆介绍，可是CMU和UC-Santa Barbara却一点动静都没有？

呵呵，这个我觉得不难理解吧？ PRESCOTT是ASU历史上第一个获诺奖的教授————而且是他们捡了个大便宜，去年刚挖来的！ 你说他们能不乐疯了？

而对CMU和UC-Santa Barbara情况就有不同。 仅就我们有限的知识，CMU的西蒙教授早就得过诺奖了。 而这两所学校的理科很强，是否还有其他诺奖得主？有兴趣的不妨考证一下。我粗略的印象好象就有UC Santa Barbara的生理学家获奖。

呵呵，真好玩。

Sandy Grossman我有时候要跟Gene Grossman搞错，是不是后者只搞国际贸易？midi可有了解？

没错，Gene Grossman是国际贸易领域里的天王级人物，是那位老天王————哥大的巴格瓦蒂的学生。

Gene Grossman

http://www.princeton.edu/~grossman/

Gene M. GrossmanCurriculum VitaeClick Here for pdf Version

Office Address:

Department of Economics 300 Fisher Hall Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544

Tel: (609) 258-4823 Fax: (609) 258-1374 e-mail: grossman@princeton.edu www: http://www.princeton.edu/~grossman

Place and Date of Birth:

New York, New York - December 11, 1955

Citizenship:

United States of America

Education:

Yale University, 1973-1976, B.A. (Summa Cum Laude), Economics, May, 1976.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1976-1980, Ph.D., Economics, June, 1980.

Primary Employment:

The Jacob Viner Professor of International Economics, Princeton University, 1992 - present

Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University, 1988 - present.

Chair, Department of Economics, Princeton University, 2002 - present.

Director, International Economics Section, Princeton University, 2000 - present.

Associate Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University, 1985 - 1988.

Assistant Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University, 1980 - 1985.

Honors and Fellowships:

Phi Beta Kappa

B.A. Summa Cum Laude, Yale University

Distinction in Economics Major, Yale University

M.I.T. Graduate Scholarship, September 1976 - June 1978

Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Research Fellowship, September 1984 - September 1988

Richard A. Lester Preceptorship, July 1984 - June 1987

Harry G. Johnson Prize, Canadian Economic Association, 1985

Daeyang Prize in Economics, King Sejong University, 1987

Yavor Prize, Horowitz Institute for Developing Countries (Jointly with Elhanan Helpman), 1989

The Jacob Viner Professor of International Economics, Chair granted by Princeton University in July 1992.

Fellow of the Econometric Society, Elected in 1992

John S. Guggenheim Memorial Foundation Fellowship, Sept.1993 - June 1994.

Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Elected in 1997.

Best Book Award, American Political Science Assocation, Political Economy Section, 2002.

Temporary Appointments:

Visiting Scholar, CERAS, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, 2003.

Visiting Professor, Department of Economics and Finance, City University of Hong Kong, 2000, 2001

Acting Director, International Finance Section, Princeton University, 1999-2000

Visiting Professor, Institut d'Economie Industrielle, Universite des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse, 1998

Disinguished Visitor, STICERD, London School of Economics, 1997, 2001

Visiting Professor, Laboratoire d'Economie Quantitative D'Aix-Marseille, Universite d'Aix-Marseille II, Les Milles, France, 1994

Visiting Professor, Universita Commerciale L. Bocconi, Milan Italy, 1994

Visiting Fellow, Incenzo Gasparini Institute of Economic Research, Milan, Italy, 1994

Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1992

Visiting Professor in the B.T. Rocca, Jr. Chair in International Trade, School of Business Administration, University of California-Berkeley, 1990.

Visiting Scholar from Abroad, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1989.

Visiting Fellow, Institute for Advanced Studies, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 1989.

Visiting Fellow, Institute for International Economic Studies, University of Stockholm, 1983, 1986, 1993.

Visiting Lecturer, Department of Economics, Tel Aviv University, 1982-1983.

Summer Intern, International Finance Division, Board of Governor of The Federal Reserve System, Summer, 1978.

Research Economist, Office of Foreign Economic Research, International Labor Affairs Bureau, U.S. Department of Labor, Summer, 1977.

http://www.princeton.edu/~grossman/grossman_cv.htm

值得一提的是——Gene Grossman教授虽然名气很大，但却没有架子。我知道这一点是有个朋友在写文章过程中向其发MAIL求教，得到了其非常耐心、细致的回答。

而那位获过克拉克奖，在微观和金融文献中经常出现的Sandy Grossman是个公认的超级天才，据说读书时就是个老师在讲台上讲而其在自己座位上讲的人物，呵呵。。。。

不过自从离开沃顿后就去全力搞自己的投资基金去了。

http://www.jobeast.com/shownews.asp?newsid=1332

其有2个中国学生————周忠全（ZHOU ZHONGQUAN）和王江（MIT金融系讲座教授及清华大学中国金融研究中心主任）。

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-10-12 11:37:02编辑过]

http://www.econ.umn.edu/events/prescottchair.html

http://www.econ.umn.edu/faculty/prescott/

看看上面2个连接，估计够UMN师生遗憾很长时间的！

主要看了上面的第一个链接，了解了两件事情：

1、西北大学设立的The Erwin Plein Nemmers Prize in Economics原来也是经济学界享有崇高声誉的奖项，该奖每两年评选一次，前五届分别颁给了：

2002: Edward C. Prescott

2000: Daniel L. McFadden

1998: Robert J. Aumann

1996: Thomas J. Sargent

1994: Peter A. Diamond

第六届估计在年底揭晓。

2、老普02年获得该奖时，从贡献介绍的先后次序看，人们把他对prosperity的研究（经济萧条往往是因为政府的政策失误所致）放在先，而把对真实经济周期的研究放在后，可见我认为老普九十年代以后就少有学术贡献的结论是错误的。

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news/rel/2004/prescott.cfm

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/news/rel/2004/statements.cfm

1)

On behalf of myself and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, I wish to extend heartfelt congratulations to Ed on this well-deserved award. Ed's contributions to economics have not only fueled advances in theoretical work, but have also had profound impacts at a policy level—as we at the Minneapolis Fed know from personal experience. Over the years this bank, along with all monetary and fiscal policymakers, has benefited from the insights offered by Ed's important work. While topics such as growth theory and time inconsistency may seem arcane, Ed's insights have important implications for the conduct of tax and fiscal policy, as well as monetary policy and even bank regulatory issues. Even those economists who don't agree with Ed cite his innovative and creative techniques for addressing economic questions. "One of the benefits of working with someone of Ed's accomplishments is that he makes everyone else better, and his stature has certainly paid dividends for the Minneapolis Fed. He has co-authored numerous articles with bank economists and offered invaluable guidance and direction to others. We feel privileged to have worked with him over the years, and we look forward to many more productive years to come.

Gary H. Stern, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

2)

That Ed Prescott has won the Nobel prize in economics comes as no surprise to his colleagues at the Minneapolis Fed. For close to 25 years, Ed has had a major impact, not only on the economic profession, but on the Bank's view on economic policy.

Ed's path-breaking work on the problem of time inconsistency alone is worthy of a Nobel prize. This work has made us rethink the way macroeconomics should be used to guide monetary policy. When you then consider his research on business cycles, on the equity premium puzzle, on the valuation of the stock market, and on the question as to why some countries are poor and others rich, its easy to see why Ed's colleagues thought he was sure to win the Nobel.

On a more personal note, because of Ed, I have been able to attract some of the best scholars in our profession to the Minneapolis Fed. Much of our success as a research department has its roots in Ed's presence and Ed's research.

Arthur J. Rolnick, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

3)

Ed Prescott is richly deserving of the Nobel Prize in Economics. He is one of the founders of real business cycle theory, which has become the dominant paradigm in modern macroeconomic research and analysis. He has also made major contributions to our understanding of the problem of time consistency in economic policymaking and to our understanding of the factors that cause some economies to grow faster than others. In addition, he has imparted his insights, his rigorousness, and his view of economics as science to his numerous graduate students (and their students), and they are now making major contributions to the field in their own right. It is an honor to have him as a colleague in our department.

Warren W. Weber, Senior Research Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

4)

Twenty years ago I left the Phd program from Harvard to come and work as Ed's research assistant and I have been learning from him ever since. It was the best move of my life. Ed opened my eyes to creative, thought-provoking research. Ed and Finn are two of the most influential macroeconomists of the last 50 years. They have changed the way that we approach the interaction of theory and measurement in a fundamental way. They are the fathers of the entire school of Minnesota Macroeconomics. In the 1980s they were regarded as kooky renegades, in the 1990s their work was regarded as controversial but extremely important, in the 2000s their methodological approach has been adopted by serious macroeconomists everywhere. Their prize is both long overdue and well-deserved.

Patrick Kehoe, Monetary Adviser, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

5)

Ed has revolutionized the way we do macroeconomics—here at the Minneapolis Fed and at universities across the globe. He has made major theoretical and methodological breakthroughs and has addressed important questions in macroeconomics, such as What are the causes of business cycles and depressions? What drives movements in stock prices? Why are some countries rich and some poor? In recent work, Ed asks, Why are Americans working much more than Europeans? His answer is lower taxes. When I think about the many hours that Ed spends in his office, in the classroom, and with his graduate students, I know the answer in his case is not lower taxes. It is his love of the science.

Ellen R. McGrattan, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

6)

Congratulations!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is great, great news. I am extremely happy for you. To say it is well deserved, to say it took too long in coming, would be such massive understatement, I won't say it.

But let me do say something: Thanks so much for being a great advisor. You have always made economics exciting, exciting, exciting. And whatever strange little ideas I've had, whatever directions my research has gone, you have always been incredibly supportive (while at the same time challenging my ideas to improve them).

Congratulations Ed. James Schmitz, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

7)

Ed Prescott is a phenomenally deserving Nobel prize winner. He has three major papers, each of which on their own, would be worthy of a Nobel prize. This fact is simply amazing. Most Nobel prize winners win for one great contribution, or a collection of contributions none of which on their own would be Nobel worthy. In the 1980's, Ed and Finn Kydland revolutionized macroeconomics with what came to be known as real business cycle theory. About the same time, he and Kydland altered our thinking on government policy by demonstrating that what is optimal for a government to plan to do is not what is optimal for a government to actually do when the time comes to do it. To paraphrase Kydland and Prescott's words, this made then current methods for analyzing government policy simply inappropriate. Finally, in the 1990's, Ed and Rajnish Mehra altered our thinking about finance with their discovery of the equity premium puzzle (that the risk associated with equities is far too small relative to bonds to justify their higher average returns). Fundamentally altering our thinking on three vital economic topics is astounding. I am proud to be his colleague.

Christopher J. Phelan, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis