发帖
雷达卡
David Card, UC Berkeley and NBERStefano DellaVigna, UC Berkeley and NBER December 2012
Abstract
How has publishing in the top journals changed since 1970? Using a data set that combines
information on all articles published in the top‐5 journals from 1970 to 2012 with their
Google Scholar citations, we identify nine key trends. First, annual submissions to the top‐5
journals nearly doubled from 1990 to 2012. Second, the total number of articles published
in these journals actually declined from 400 per year in the late 1970s to 300 per year most
recently. As a result, the acceptance rate has fallen from 15% to 6%, with potential
implications for the career progression of young scholars. Third, one journal, the American
Economic Review, now accounts for 40% of top‐5 publications, up from one‐quarter in the
1970s. Fourth, recently published papers are on average 3 times longer than they were in
the 1970s, contributing to the relative shortage of journal space. Fifth, the number of
authors per paper has increased from 1.3 in 1970 to 2.3 in 2012, partly offsetting the fall in
the number of articles per year. Sixth, citations for top‐5 publications are high: among
papers published in the late 1990s, the median number of Google Scholar citations is 200.
Seventh, the ranking of journals by citations has remained relatively stable, with the notable
exception of the Quarterly Journal of Economics, which climbed from fourth place to first
place over the past three decades. Eighth, citation counts are significantly higher for longer
papers and those written by more co‐authors. Ninth, although the fractions of articles from
different fields published in the top‐5 has remained relatively stable, there are important
cohort trends in the citations received by papers from different fields, with rising citations to
more recent papers in Development and International, and declining citations to recent
papers in Econometrics and Theory.
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