结构性宏观调控不改攀升格局—八月A 股展望及投资策略 36页

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申银万国：结构性宏观调控不改攀升格局

—八月A 股展望及投资策略

36页 08.03

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2007-8-6 07:24:00 上传

结构性宏观调控不改攀升格局—八月A 股展望及投资策略 36页
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目 录
1 调控低预期，业绩超预期，推动市场回暖······· 5
2. 下半年的三种情景假设··································· 5
2.1.1 情景一：经济加速、调控严厉····························································· 5
2.1.2 结论一：市场箱体振荡，热点向消费服务转移··································· 5
2.2.1 情景二：经济加速，调控温和···························································· 6
2.2.2 结论二：市场先上涨后振荡，热点向投资品蔓延······························· 6
2.3.1 情景三：经济减速、调控温和·························································· 6
2.3.2 结论三：市场缓慢盘升，热点围绕人民币升值··································· 7
3. 大概率情景：加速经济背景下结构性调控······ 7
3.1 出口可能持续························································································ 7
3.2 投资或许更热························································································ 8
3.3 调控：“结构性”紧缩··········································································· 9
4. 投资热点向投资品行业延伸·························· 10
4.1 结构性调控政策有利于改善投资制造业供求关系································ 10
4.2 延长的景气周期VS 较低的估值区间··················································· 13
4.3 资产富裕型行业：受益于“另一种人民币升值” ································ 17
附录： 七月市场表现回顾································ 22
1 市场整体表现：7 月冰火两重天····························································· 22
2 风格板块表现：中、小盘股，中、低价股和微利股表现突出················· 23
3 行业板块走势：地产，有色，煤炭、钢铁带领市场反弹，并创出新高··· 24
4 市场估值再次处于高位·········································································· 25
5 风格板块：中小盘和大盘的估值差距、微利和绩优的估值差距加大······ 25
6 估值来看，服务业和投资品有吸引力····················································· 26
7 估值的国际比较：港股AH 价差迅速收窄·············································· 31

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关键词：投资策略 宏观调控 结构性 人民币升值 冰火两重天 投资 展望 宏观调控 格局 结构性