数据序列明显呈上升趋势,很显然是非平稳数据,结果ADF检验结果是平稳的。结果如下:
Null Hypothesis: ANHUISHENQING has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.460129 0.0201
Test critical values: 1% level -3.788030
5% level -3.012363
10% level -2.646119
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(ANHUISHENQING)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/21/13 Time: 14:33
Sample (adjusted): 1990 2010
Included observations: 21 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
ANHUISHENQING(-1) -1.131224 0.326931 -3.460129 0.0035
D(ANHUISHENQING(-1)) 0.762713 0.626704 1.217024 0.2424
D(ANHUISHENQING(-2)) 8.647974 0.654354 13.21605 0.0000
D(ANHUISHENQING(-3)) -0.850214 1.766180 -0.481386 0.6372
D(ANHUISHENQING(-4)) 7.046567 1.870314 3.767584 0.0019
C -329.8894 396.8009 -0.831373 0.4188
R-squared 0.988804 Mean dependent var 2226.810
Adjusted R-squared 0.985072 S.D. dependent var 6707.156
S.E. of regression 819.4791 Akaike info criterion 16.49017
Sum squared resid 10073190 Schwarz criterion 16.78861
Log likelihood -167.1468 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.55494
F-statistic 264.9545 Durbin-Watson stat 2.055793
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
如何解释牙?还有,我用1985年-2010年的数据做的ADF检验,eVIews实际却是用1990-2010年数据,是软件自动筛检数据的吗?求高手释疑!!!