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Bear Sterns published a long, hard-copy Global Notes report entitled Tighter Credit and Global Slowdown, but No Recession. The acrobat file is attached, including graphs and disclosures.
* We expect weaker U.S. growth through the first half of 2008, and more drag on earnings and foreign growth than the current consensus.
* The economy is digesting dramatic changes in bank financing after the excess liquidity environment of 2003-2006. We note substantial uncertainty in the outcome. We think a material slowdown is more likely than recession or ???snapback.???
* The report includes updated forecast tables plus new or newly updated data on the tightening in credit conditions, credit market spreads, housing and U.S. household savings.
* We think the U.S. slowdown will spread abroad, particularly to Europe and the UK, as discussed in the report. There???s a new chapter on Japan and sections on several other countries including China, India, Brazil and Russia.
* We expect labor conditions to weaken some, but only to the point of slowing consumption growth, not stopping it. Business investment and commercial construction may soften as growth slows and lending practices adjust.
* We think core inflation will be somewhat elevated in coming years, causing a Fed-engineered disinflation process, higher real interest rates, and a relatively weak recovery from the 2008 slowdown.
Please see details, graphs and disclosures in the attachment.
174688.pdf
(1.45 MB)
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-11-18 12:20:01编辑过]
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