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THE LIGHTSIN THE TUNNEL:
AUTOMATION,ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY AND THE ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE
MartinFord
LIGHTSTUNNEL(e-book).pdf
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Copyright . 2009 by Martin R. Ford All Rights Reserved, including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form. Published in the United States by Acculant. Publishing. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Ford, Martin R. The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future / Martin Ford p. cm. Includes bibliographical references ISBN-10 1-4486-5981-7 ISBN-13 978-1-4486-5981-4 1. Economics―Future Trends 2. Economics―Impact of Advanced Technology on 3. Artificial Intelligence and Robotics 4. Computer Technology and Civilization 5. Technological Unemployment I. Title This book is available for purchase or download inpaper and electronic formats at: www.TheLightsintheTunnel.com Paperback and Kindle versions are also available at Amazon.com.
CONTENTS
Introduction 1
Chapter 1: The Tunnel 7The Mass Market 10Visualizing the Mass Market 11Automation Comes to the Tunnel 17A Reality Check 21Summarizing 24
Chapter 2: Acceleration 27The Rich Get Richer 28World Computational Capability 39Grid and Cloud Computing 41Meltdown 43Diminishing Returns 47Offshoring and Drive-Through Banking 54Short Lived Jobs 57Traditional Jobs: The “Average” Lights in the Tunnel 58A Tale of Two Jobs 63“Software” Jobs and Artificial Intelligence 67Automation, Offshoring and Small Business 74“Hardware” Jobs and Robotics 75“Interface” Jobs 80The Next “Killer App” 81Military Robotics 85Robotics and Offshoring 86Nanotechnology and its Impact on Employment 87The Future of College Education 90Econometrics: Looking Backward 93The Luddite Fallacy 95THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / viCopyrighted Material – Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon A More Ambitious View of FutureTechnological Progress: The Singularity 100A War on Technology 103Chapter 3: Danger 107The Predictive Nature of Markets 107The 2008-2009 Recession 110Offshoring and Factory Migration 113Reconsidering Conventional Views about the Future 115The China Fallacy 117The Future of Manufacturing 124India and Offshoring 127Economic and National Security Implicationsfor the United States 128Solutions 131Labor and Capital Intensive Industries:The Tipping Point 131The Average Worker and the Average Machine 135Capital Intensive Industries are “Free Riders” 138The Problem with Payroll Taxes 140The “Workerless” Payroll Tax 142“Progressive” Wage Deductions 144Defeating the Lobbyists 146A More Conventional View of the Future 149The Risk of Inaction 152Chapter 4: Transition 156The Basis of the Free Market Economy: Incentives 158Preserving the Market 159Recapturing Wages 162Positive Aspects of Jobs 168The Power of Inequality 169Where the Free Market Fails: Externalities 170Contents / viiCopyrighted Material – Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon Creating a Virtual Job 172Smoothing the Business Cycle and ReducingEconomic Risk 179The Market Economy of the Future 180An International View 183Transitioning to the New Model 185Keynesian Grandchildren 189Transition in the Tunnel 192Chapter 5: The Green Light 194Attacking Poverty 196Fundamental Economic Constraints 201Removing the Constraints 202The Evolution toward Consumption 204The Green Light 207Appendix / Final Thoughts 209Are the ideas presented in this book WRONG?(Opposing arguments with responses) 210Two Questions Worth Thinking About 223Where are we now? Four Possible Cases 224The Next 10-20 years: Some Indicators to Watch for 227Outsmarting Marx 237The Technology Paradox 239Machine Intelligence and the Turing Test 241About / Contacting the Author 246Notes 247
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