China Banks - Where there is a will, there is a way

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China Banks - Where there is a will, there is a way
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Table of Contents
Investment summary................................................................3
Outlook and key themes in 2007 and 2008..................................................................4
Restructuring the sector ...............................................................................................6
Chinese banks: Investment case...................................................................................7
Investment risks .........................................................................................................11
Share price performance ............................................................................................12
Valuing Chinese banks ..............................................................................................13
Valuations ...............................................................................17
Two-stage DDM derived P/B approach.....................................................................17
Alternative valuation metrics .....................................................................................21
Peer valuation comparison.........................................................................................21
Sector outlook ........................................................................25
Key 2007 and 2008 themes........................................................................................25
Economic outlook ......................................................................................................29
Operating outlook ......................................................................................................30
Asset quality outlook .................................................................................................35
Investment case for Chinese banks......................................36
Industrialization and strong investment growth .........................................................36
A more vibrant SME sector .......................................................................................39
Under-penetrated consumer banking market .............................................................40
Numerous fee growth opportunities...........................................................................49
More international business .......................................................................................55
Government’s commitment to sector reforms............................................................57
Other policy catalysts: Tax reforms ...........................................................................62
Investment risks .....................................................................64
Weakness in the sector...............................................................................................64
Cyclicality likely to weigh increasingly on asset quality ...........................................66
Policy-driven liquidity stress .....................................................................................69
Property sector: In a state of flux...............................................................................71
Disintermediation and further rates deregulation.......................................................72
Foreign competition ...................................................................................................75
Industry overview...................................................................77
Market structure.........................................................................................................77
Regulatory framework ...............................................................................................81
Financial analysis...................................................................86
Balance sheet analysis................................................................................................86
Profitability analysis ..................................................................................................92
Asset quality analysis.................................................................................................98

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