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Asia Ex-Japan Weekly Economic Monitor
GLOBAL LETTER: SHOCK THERAPY
The Fed's aggressive inter-meeting move in the wake of this week's global equity rout underscores its resolve to head off a recession. It is premature to assume it will fail.
OVERVIEW: CHINA: LOOKING MORE VULNERABLE
Sub-10% growth could bring some of the economy's myriad macro risks to the surface.
PREVIEW
The central banks of India and Malaysia should keep rates on hold in the face of the uncertain outlook for inflation and growth. However, the Philippine central bank will likely cut rates by 25bp to ease currency-appreciation pressure and boost GDP growth, which likely weakened in Q4.
ASIA OUTLOOK: FIVE THEMES AND THREE RISKS
For our core view of a soft landing for the global economy, we highlight five key themes.
CHINA OUTLOOK: THE UNMASKING OF OVERCAPACITY
An export-led slowdown could reveal the severity of overcapacity in China.
INDIA OUTLOOK: SEEING THROUGH THE SOFT PATCH
With the right reforms, India can achieve a potential economic growth rate of 10%.
KOREA OUTLOOK: SHIFTING DOWN A GEAR
We doubt that domestic demand can fully offset slowing exports in 2008.
AUSTRALIA OUTLOOK: STICKY, HIGH INFLATION
Notwithstanding downside growth risks, inflation is too high for the RBA to ignore.
For analyst certifications and important disclosures, please refer to the documents contained within this email.[此贴子已经被angelboy于2008-7-29 15:14:59编辑过]
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