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China and India: Reforms and the Response: How Differently have the Economies Behaved
Manmohan Agarwal and John Whalley
NBER Working Paper No. 19006
May 2013
JEL No. F00,F10,F21
ABSTRACT
The relative performance of China and India is compared using two different methods and they provide
a very different picture of their relative performance. We compare the average absolute values of indictors
for the decade of the 1980s, 1990s and the 2000s. We use indicators such as the current account balance
(CAB), exports of goods and services (XGS), foreign direct investment inflow (FDI), gross domestic
savings, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), aid, private capital inflows (PrK) and workers’ remittances,
all as a percentage of GDP. We also look at the growth rate of per capita GDP, exports of goods and
services and of gross fixed capital formation.
Using a two tailed- test we find that China does better than India for most of these indicators. For instance,
China has a higher growth rate of per capita income, XGS and GFCF as also a higher share of XGS,
GFCF etc in GDP than does India. We also find that China usually has a lower CV, namely a more
stable performance. But over the three decades the CV falls in India so it is approaching that in China,
namely the two economies are becoming more similar.
We also compare the dynamic performance of the two economies since their reforms. We form index
numbers for the indicators. So for example, we from an index number for share of exports in GDP
with year 1 of reform in China being 100, i.e. the index for the share in 1979 is 100. Year 2 would
be the index number for 1980, namely the value of the share in 1980 with the share in 1979 being 100,
etc. In the case of India year 1 would be 1992 once the reforms started, year 2 would be 1993 and so
on, so the index would have 1992 as the base year. We find that the indices behave very similarly in
the two economies for many of the indicators, namely the pattern of change in China after 1979 is
the same as in India after 1992.
Manmohan
The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections,
and Comparisons
David E. Bloom, Elizabeth T. Cafiero, Mark E. McGovern, Klaus Prettner, Anderson Stanciole,
Jonathan Weiss, Samuel Bakkila, and Larry Rosenberg
NBER Working Paper No. 19335
August 2013
JEL No. E13,I15,O40
ABSTRACT
This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China
and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO’s EPIC model of economic
growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation.
We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease,
diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs
will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries,
the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease.
Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s
higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s Best Buys for addressing
the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.
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