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瑞信最新发布的中国宏观策略（共13页）着重强调了对中国经济下行风险的担忧。由于监管者近期没有放松银根的意愿，但同时有相当一部分非银行贷款即将到期，使得中国金融风险在短期内上升。最近一些公司债破产及一些信托基金还款出现困难将迫使监管者实施新的举措。但即使有新举措，中国面临的局面越来越复杂（既要调结构，又要稳增长，还要实现软着陆），允许出错的空间变得越来越小。总的来说，中国的风险不会影响全球金融的稳定。本篇报告将分析以下问题：
- Rising risks put China-sensitive assets under pressure
- When will policymakers respond?
- What could cause further stress?
To blink or not to blink?
Investors have become increasingly concerned about risks in China, with industrial commodity markets coming under severe pressure. We think that still soft cyclical dynamics will extend this bearish sentiment and intensify market focus on the possibility that China is in the first throes of a systemic crisis.
The degree of financial stress has indeed risen, as the authorities appear unwilling to meaningfully ease liquidity while a large portion of non-bank credit comes close to maturity. Recent corporate bond defaults and difficulties in trust loan repayment are early signs that a powerful policy backstop is likely to be required.
Given the authorities’ focus on social stability and employment growth, we ultimately expect a policy backstop to be forthcoming, reinforcing market sentiment and stabilizing near-term growth. Until then, however, heightening market concerns about China's structural situation are likely to keep Chinasensitive assets under pressure. Moreover the authorities' balancing act is becoming ever more complex, raising the risks of a policy misstep as they attempt to engineer a soft landing.
China Macro Strategy - To blink or not to blink.pdf
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