法国兴业银行--英国图书出版行业研究报告2007

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FY2008 is set to be promising for bookmakers thanks to: 1) the new £500 jackpot machines,
2) the roll-out of blackjack and poker on existing terminals, 3) the 2008 European Football
Cup and 4) international expansion. However, a few well-flagged hurdles will have to be
cleared beforehand: the absence of the Football World Cup, extra taxes on gaming machines
and extra costs associated with extended winter openings. FY2007 will therefore be a
challenging year for bookmakers. More than ever therefore, stock picking will be key and we
believe WMH’s valuation in particular more than discounts the tough comparables.
􀁑 The core activity for off-course bookmakers remains their retail operations. However, the
explosive success of gaming machines (50% of group EBIT) has meant that, today, over-thecounter
betting has become considerably less important. This is no bad news considering the
ever increasing appetite for high-pay, frequent-play gambling that gaming machines satisfy.
􀁑 The potential upside from the opening up of new markets such as Spain and Italy is huge. First
signs from LAD and WMH’s Italian experience are mixed, however, and unless the two
become more aggressive in expanding their footprint, they could risk not gaining enough
critical mass to make a sizable impact. While WMH may be more focused on soon-to-be
regulated Spain, LAD’s planned €100m investment is at odds with progress made so far.
􀁑 International expansion will make it easier for bookmakers to put their strong free cash
generation to good use; besides returning cash to shareholders, this has been problematic in
past. We believe this will ease the market’s wariness of bookmakers (especially WMH)
embarking on expensive acquisitions.
􀁑 We initiate coverage of WMH with a TP of 700p and a Buy rating. We believe the 8% discount
to Ladbrokes is unjustified considering the virtually identical nature of the two businesses but
also WMH’s higher profitability per shop and stronger free cash flow generation. On
Ladbrokes we upgrade our Sell recommendation to Hold (TP 380p) given the poor
performance of the shares and the now limited downside to our target price.

4 Investment summary
4 A changing business model – rise of the machines
4 Tough short-term comparables but prospects are sound
4 New frontiers will drive growth – Italy as a case study
4 Bookmakers remain free cash flow machines
5 William Hill is our top pick in the sector
5 LBO spec unlikely at current prices but should support shares
6 Ladbrokes and William Hill – business overview
7 Group anatomy – performance and valuation
38 Valuation
8 Summary of assumptions
9 Valuation methodology – LAD 380p; WMH 700p
12 Leveraged buyout scenario
14 Bull and Bear scenarios
16 Historical and prospective valuation
18 Rise of the machines
19 Structural changes are affecting the general betting market
21 Have Ladbrokes and William Hill bucked the declining trends?
24 We remain optimistic for the future of retail betting
27 New frontiers – Italy as a case study
27 Italian betting and gaming market
28 Sports betting and machines will be the key drivers
29 The Italian betting tender
30 Winners and losers
31 Contribution of new Italian licences to Ladbrokes
32 Appendix I – Evolution of the UK betting market
33 The Gambling Act: key points
34 Appendix II – Italian tender result
35 Appendix III – Italian betting shops estimates
Company profiles
37 William Hill - Top pick among bookmakers
38 Valuation
38 Key profit drivers: gross win and costs growth
41 Our estimates in detail
44 Ladbrokes - High expectations

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关键词：法国兴业银行 行业研究报告 研究报告 图书出版 行业研究 研究报告 英国 行业 图书 法国兴业银行

楼主能把英文先学好，再来骗人吗？bookmaker 在英国不是图书发行的是博彩公司。。。。晕倒，白付钱了。