福布斯：史上最好的20条投资建议 The Best Investment Advice Of All Time （附链接）

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The Best Investment Advice Of All Time
（排名不分先后）


1. Jack Bogle



Founder, Vanguard

Indispensible Wisdom: It's the fees, stupid

Nicknames: Jack, Saint Jack (used by supporters and detractors alike)

Money Quote: "Don't let the miracle of long-term compounding of returns be overwhelmed by the tyranny of long-term compounding of costs."

Fundamentals: When he launched the first retail stock index fund, the Vanguard 500, in 1976, it was derided by some as "Bogle's Folly." But thanks to a 1996 heart transplant, Bogle has lived to see widespread acceptance of his disruptive idea--that since you can't beat the market, low costs are all that matter. The Vanguard Group is now the world's largest mutual fund family, with USD 2.6 trillion under management.

Invest Like Bogle: Allocate between Vanguard Total Stock Market Index and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index according to your age and risk tolerance. Automate your contributions, and stop thinking about stocks. You have better things to do.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-502904-1-1.html
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https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1599240-1-1.html
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-2313437-1-1.html



2. Sir John Templeton



1912-2008

Founder, Templeton Funds

Indispensable wisdom: Buy at the point of maximum pessimism; sell at the point of maximum optimism

Money quote: "If you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else."

Fundamentals: Templeton, a committed contrarian, believed the only way to get a bargain in the stock market was to buy when everyone else was selling: At the outbreak of World War II, when everyone else was panicking, he bought shares in every NYSE-listed company that was trading for less than 1 dollar--and made money on nearly all of them.

He was early to see the benefits of diversifying outside of America; international investing became his signature style. It worked : USD 10,000 invested in his flagship fund in 1954 grew into $2 million by the time Templeton retired in 1992.

Invest Like Templeton: The Templeton Growth Fund continues to employ Sir John's strategies and has averaged an 18.3% return over the last five years.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3144154-1-1.html



3. Warren Buffett



Age: 83

Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway

Indispensible Wisdom: Only invest in what you understand and at the right price

Nickname: Oracle of Omaha

Bestseller: Berkshire's annual letter to shareholders

Money Quote: "Whether socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."

Fundamentals: Buffett's mentor, Ben Graham, taught his disciples that you weren't buying stocks, you were buying businesses. And sometimes "Mr. Market" was willing to sell those businesses for less than they were really worth. That was the signal to buy. Buffett has adhered to this value-investing philosophy since the 1950s, and it's the basis of his $65 billion fortune. Some big hits: American Express, Disney, Washington Post, Capital Cities/ABC, Coca-Cola and Geico.

Invest Like Buffett: Why not just buy Berkshire Hathaway and have Warren invest for you? The "Baby Berkshire" B shares, at $126, are more accessible than the USD 190,000 A shares.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3133113-1-1.html
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-484472-1-1.html
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-470990-1-1.html
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-926649-1-1.html
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1121348-1-1.html


4. Nathan Mayer Rothschild



1777-1836

Founder, N.M. Rothschild & Sons

Indispensable Wisdon: Information is money

Crystal Ball Cred:  Thanks to his extensive network of carrier pigeons Rothschild knew that England had defeated France at Waterloo before anyone else in London. As other traders on the stock exchange braced for a British loss, he went long.

Fundamentals: Rothschild's father planted the seeds for the 19th century's greatest banking empire by stationing each of his five sons in different European cities. Nathan got London, but throughout his career he was able to profit from the insights of his brothers in Frankfurt, Paris, Naples and Vienna.

Invest Like Rothschild: Tap into groups with their fingers on the pulse. Consider shares in high-yielding private equity firms like Blackstone Group, Apollo Global Management, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Carlyle Group.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1093537-1-1.html


5. Sam Zell



Age: 72

Chairman, Equity Group Investments

Indispensible Wisdom: Losers can be lucrative, too

Nickname: The Grave Dancer

Money Quote: "Look for good companies with bad balance sheets and understand your downside."

Fundamentals: Zell looks for down-on-their-luck companies that he can buy cheaply, and he is not afraid of debt. It's the anti-Buffett approach: Find poorly managed companies with shoddy balance sheets and you'll have lots of upside if they turn around. In the late 1960s Zell also pioneered the residential REIT structure, which allowed ordinary investors to buy shares in apartment buildings, bringing Wall Street-style liquidity to the real estate markets. A rare miss: His 2007 purchase of newspaper publisher Tribune Co. ended in bankruptcy.

Invest Like Zell: Many of his largest holdings--Starwood Hotels, Anixter International and Equity Residential--are traded publicly.


6. Joseph Schumpeter



1883-1950

Economist and Political Scientist

Indispensible Wisdom: Destruction is a mechanism for progress

Bestseller: Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (1942)

Money Quote: "A depression is for capitalism like a good, cold shower."

Fundamentals: Schumpeter's great insight--which he termed "creative destruction"--was that economic innovation is fueled by entrepreneurs who discover better ways of doing things (the creative part), and their success leads to the collapse of old companies and methods (the destruction). Autos replaced horse-drawn buggies; word processors supplanted typewriters; the Internet killed print ads. The trick is to be on the right side of history.

Invest Like Schumpeter: Small-cap growth funds are great places for finding Schumpeterian disruptors. Lord Abbett Developing Growth Fund and Wasatch World Innovators Fund were up 57% and 34%, respectively, in 2013.

论坛里有许多熊彼特的资料，就不一一列举了。


7. Peter Lynch



Age: 70

Manager, Fidelity Magellan Fund (1977-90)

Indispensable Wisdom: Buy what you know

Bestseller: One Up on Wall Street (1989)

Money Quote: “Everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth grade math, you can do it.”

Fundamentals: Lynch turned Fidelity’s Magellan Fund into one of the world’s largest mutual funds in the 1980s by logging a compounded average annual return of 29%. His secret sauce: stocks with historically low price/earnings multiples, avoiding companies with hypergrowth and ignoring market forecasts. His commonsense picks worked brilliantly and spawned a generation of boots-on-the-ground DIY analysts. After his amazing 13-year market-beating streak ended in 1990 with a 4.5% loss, he retired.

Invest Like Lynch: Don’t buy Twitter or Amazon, but do buy these suggested by AAII.com and Validea.com (both have Peter Lynch-inspired stock screens): NetApp, Barrett Business Services, Honda, Publix and Alliance Fiber Optic.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-788524-1-1.html



8. Alexander Hamilton



1755-1804

First U.S. Treasury Secretary

Indispensible Wisdom: Sovereign strength begets financial stability

Nickname: Little Lion

Killer internship: Aide-de-camp for George Washington during the Revolution

Bestseller: The 10 bill

Money Quote: "A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one."

Fundamentals: During the period when America was an emerging market, Hamilton was a tireless advocate for responsible federal finances. He knew that a strong central government was a prerequisite for robust economic growth. Lesson: Don't buy securities in developing countries with dodgy rulers.

Invest Like Hamilton: You can always be a purist and buy U.S. government bonds, but if you want to venture overseas, be sure to do plenty of homework first.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1198396-1-1.html
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3144985-1-1.html



9. David Tepper



Age: 56

Founder, Appaloosa Management

Indispensible Wisdom: The end is not nigh: people and markets adapt to even the worst circumstances

Influenced By: Robert Rubin

Crystal Ball Cred: During panic of early 2009 bet heavily on Bank of America, Citigroup and AIG

Money Quote: "I am the animal at the head of the pack. ... I either get eaten, or I get the good grass."

Fundamentals: Quit Goldman Sachs in 1992 to found his own hedge fund. As a distressed-bond investor he has a record of making clearheaded moves in environments of fear and misinformation. Tepper paid attention to Treasury department statements promising to backstop the big financial firms and in the five years after Lehman's collapse generated annualized net returns of nearly 40%.

Invest Like Tepper: Watch the central bankers and fiscal policymakers closely. Own Google and Citigroup--he does.



10. Hetty Green



1834-1916

Miser

Indispensable Wisdon: Be opportunistic, focus on income and pinch pennies

Nickname: "The Witch of Wall Street"

Money Quote: "All you have to do is buy cheap and sell dear, act with thrift and shrewdness, and be persistent."

Fundamentals: Green inherited USD 5 million at age 30, and by the time she died in 1916 she had turned it into USD 100 million, making her the richest woman in the nation. How? One: She was unbelievably cheap, refusing to use hot water, wash her clothes or provide her son with decent medical care. Two: a flint-eyed instinct for a bargain, favoring income from distressed loans and discounted government bonds. She only bought stocks in financial panics.

Invest Like Green: She endeavored to earn 6% annually, doubling her money every 12 years. Earning 6% today isn't easy. One possibility: BlackRock's Utility & Infrastructure Trust has a 7% yield. Another: Energy Transfer Partners, an MLP yielding 6.6%.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3145052-1-1.html

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11. Roger Babson



1875-1967

Founder, Babson Statistical Organization

Indispensible Wisdom: Diversification, caution and no margin debt

Influenced By: Sir Isaac Newton

Crystal Ball Cred: In September 1929 warned investors of an impending crash

Money Quote: "More people should learn to tell their dollars where to go instead of asking them where they went."

Fundamentals: The eventual founder of Babson College was educated as an engineer at MIT but taught himself statistical analysis while recuperating from tuberculosis. He bought a typewriter, developed a market index based on Newton's law of action and reaction (lower prices must follow higher prices and vice versa) and attracted 30,000 newsletter subscribers.

Invest Like Babson: Buy PowerShares' FTSE RAFI 1000 Index ETF or FTSE RAFI All World 3000. Both are broadly diversified in stocks that have a lower price-to-book value and high cash flow and pay a dividend.



12. Carl Icahn



Age: 78

Founder, Icahn Enterprises

Indispensible Wisdom: Complain loudly

Inspiration For: Gordon Gekko's line from Wall Street "If you need a friend, get a dog."

Fundamentals: Icahn rose to prominence as a corporate raider in the 1980s, taking hostile control of underperforming companies and ruthlessly cashing in. Now he's been reincarnated as an activist investor, but underneath, the leopard has the same spots. His current MO: Take a minority stake in a listed company, demand board seats and aggressively agitate in the interest of shareholders. Management is often not amused, but the stock usually pops.

Invest Like Icahn: If you want Carl in your corner--and you probably do--you can buy shares in his publicly traded holding company, Icahn Enterprises, which has trounced the S&P 500 since 2000 (22% versus 4%). Among its largest holdings are Apple and Chesapeake Energy, the natural gas producer whose CEO, Aubrey McClendon, Icahn helped push out of the company.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3145116-1-1.html


13. John Maynard Keynes



1883-1946

Economist

Indispensible Wisdom: Invest, don't speculate

Bestseller: The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919)

Money Quote: "Investing is an activity of forecasting the yield over the life of the asset; speculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market."

Fundamentals: Although Keynes is known for pioneering macroeconomic theory, he was also a great investor. Throughout the 1920s he was an avid speculator, gambling on currencies and commodities. Later he moved into stocks, eschewing the "animal spirits" of an irrational market for companies with good long-term prospects. Despite being nearly wiped out three times (1920, 1929, 1937), he achieved a 16% annualized return between 1922 and 1946.

Invest Like Keynes: Buy well-managed companies that pay a solid dividend, like those found in Vanguard's Dividend Appreciation Index Fund.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-453701-1-1.html
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-2123920-1-1.html



14. Alicia Munnell



Age: 71

Economist

Indispensable Wisdom: Make savings automatic

Influenced By: Robert Ball, commissioner of Social Security under three different presidents

Money Quote: "[The 401(k)] was supposed to be money that you could use to go to Paris. Instead, it's become our basic system."

Bestseller: Managing Your Money in Retirement (2010)

Fundamentals: A 20-year veteran of the Boston Fed and a former member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers who now teaches at Boston College, Munnell sounded the alarm early that Americans weren't saving enough for retirement. A longtime advocate of pushing people to save through automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans, she recently has become concerned that overly spooked retirees won't spend enough to maximize their well-being.

Plan Like Munnell: Run your retirement numbers--most investors have no clue how much they should save or spend. The online calculator at basic.esplanner.com can help you.

Working Longer_ The Solution to the Retirement Income Challenge (2008).pdf (1.36 MB, 需要: 27 个论坛币)

2014-8-8 18:25:16 上传

Alicia Munnell
需要: 27 个论坛币  [购买]

15. Jeremy Grantham



Age: 75

Co-Founder, Grantham Mayo van Otterloo

Indispensable Wisdom: Over time asset prices and profit margins revert to long-term averages

Crystal Ball Cred: His quarterly shareholder letter warned of inflating bubbles in the Japanese stock market in the 1980s, the first dot-com craze in the 1990s and the housing crisis in the 2000s.

Fundamentals: Unless you are a genius on the order of Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch, picking individual winners is next to impossible. So Grantham focuses on Broader Slices Of The Market: He had massive success with small caps in the 1970s and international value stocks in the 1980s. Lesson? Stop trying to be a stock picker, and look for value on a grander scale.

Invest Like Grantham: Think farmland. He has been forecasting a global food crisis for several years and actually thinks that buying a farm is the best move. But short of donning overalls, you could just invest in publicly traded food companies like Monsanto or Tyson Foods.



16. Thomas Rowe Price Jr.



1898–1983

Founder, T. Rowe Price & Associates

Indispensable Wisdom: Growth stocks for the long run

Money Quote: “[Most big fortunes result] from investing in a growing business and staying with it through thick and thin.”

Lasting Innovation: Price hated selling stocks on commission, so when he launched his own firm in 1937 he charged a fee based on assets managed, a radical concept at the time that is now industry standard.

Fundamentals: Price sought out stocks with earnings and dividends rising faster than inflation and economic growth. Some stocks are better than others, he reasoned, despite the prevailing view that stocks fluctuate en masse with the economic cycle.

Invest Like Price: Growth Stock Fund, launched in 1950, and New Horizons, which dates from 1960, are two of the oldest T. Rowe Price funds that still employ the

founder’s core growth strategy. Over the past decade both have trounced the S&P 500.



17. George Soros



Age: 83

Founder, Quantum Fund

Indispensable Wisdom: Discount the obvious, bet on the unexpected

Influenced By: Karl Popper

Crystal Ball Cred: Massively shorted the British pound just before it collapsed after withdrawing from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

Fundamentals: The Hungarian hedge fund legend and global macro pioneer has made a career by anticipating currency crises. His bet against the Japanese yen helped make him the highest-earning hedge fund manager in 2013, with a personal windfall of $4 billion. Bases his bets on his home-brewed "reflexivity" social theory, which postulates feedback loops in the market when investors chase higher prices, causing bubbles.

Invest Like Soros: His biggest recent bet is on Israeli pharmaceutical giant Teva. He also is siding with Carl Icahn--and against Bill Ackman--by going long on Herbalife.

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3140830-1-1.html
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-867680-1-1.html



18. Friedrich Engels



1820-95

Industrialist, political theorist

Indispensible Wisdom: Profit from cheap labor

Influenced by: Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel

Bestseller: The Condition of the Working Class in England (1844)

Money Quote: "The proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains."

Fundamentals: Engels was born rich--the heir to a cotton fortune--and he loved the good life: champagne, foxhunting, late-night soirees--all while delivering a withering critique of capitalism. He coauthored The Communist Manifesto with Karl Marx in 1848 and financially supported him--to no one's surprise, he was bad with money--while Marx wrote his magnum opus, Das Kapital.

Invest like Engels: At the heart of Engels' theories: Capitalists profit by "exploiting" workers. It's hard to argue with that. Investing in businesses with low labor costs remains a sound way of making money. Two blue chips: McDonald's, which yields 3%, and Wal-Mart, with a 2.5% dividend yield.



19. Jeffrey Gundlach



Age: 54

Founder, Doubleline Capital

Indispensible Wisdom: Discipline beats emotion

Nickname: The King of Bonds

Crystal Ball Cred: Publicly called the mortgage-securities crash in 2007

Money Quote: "When you're in a major market downturn, the beta eats the alpha."

Fundamentals: After being unceremoniously fired from the USD 12 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund in 2009, Gundlach got his revenge by founding Double Line Capital, which is now more than four times bigger than his old fund, with USD 50 billion in assets. A Dartmouth philosophy and math major, Gundlach is a big thinker with a bloodless, contrarian approach who doesn't fall in love with his positions: "You have to be able to abandon your old friends."

Invest Like Gundlach: Buy his DoubleLine Core Fixed Income Fund or Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund. He's also bullish on the U.S. dollar, which you can play using PowerShares DB US Dollar Index ETF.

中文介绍：华尔街迎来新“债王” ：辍学耶鲁玩摇滚 电视感召入投行


20. William Sharpe



Age: 80

Cofounder, Financial Engines

Indispensable Wisdom: Understand risk

Stockholm Calling: Shared the 1990 Nobel Prize in economics with mentor Harry Markowitz and Chicago's Merton Miller for his capital asset pricing model

Money Quote: "Some investments do have higher expected returns than others. By and large they're the ones that will do the worst in bad times."

Fundamentals: His best-known academic work illustrates the relationship between risk and expected returns. The famous "Sharpe ratio" gauges whether portfolio gains are the result of a manager's investment skill or excessive risk-taking. Pro tip: There isn't a lot of "skill" out there.

Invest Like Sharpe: Model your expected returns to your risk tolerance using probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations. If you don't have the math chops for that, use Vanguard's simple retirement-nest-egg calculator (vanguard.com/nesteggcalculator) to gauge asset allocation choices, and buy low-cost diversified index funds and ETFs.

http://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/aaap/wfsaaap.pdf



论坛里还有其他一些书籍与资料:
跟大师学投资_格雷厄姆、费雪、巴菲特、彼得·林奇长期战胜市场的价值投资智慧
免费投资经典（巴菲特 索罗斯 彼得林奇 格雷厄姆）
Lessons from the Legends of Wall Street, Nikki Ross
King of Capital (资本之王）英文版
The Sages: Warren Buffett, George Soros, Paul Volcker

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