MS Greater China Economics Issues in Focus

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August 12, 2014
Greater China
Economics
Issues in Focus

China: PBOC expected to maintain a loosening bias.
Expectations of an imminent tightening emerged in early
July on the back of the news of a PBOC liquidity
withdrawal. In our view, the PBOC has yet to shift to a
more hawkish policy bias. However, such confusion on
monetary policy stance highlights the disadvantage of
targeted easing, i.e., the lack of a signaling effect.  We
revisit the pros and cons of the new “targeted easing”
approach and assess its impact. We also address the
possible direction of monetary policy in the near future.
We believe the PBOC calibrated monetary easing
measures to aim at specific sectors, due to its fear that
general monetary easing would unleash liquidity into
sectors with over-capacity/low efficiency and tarnish the
pro-reform image of the new government. However,
such targeted easing could generate further structural
distortions without a proven record of success in
targeting specific sectors with precision.  
Taiwan: Booming Tourism, Six Years On:  It has been
six years since Taiwan opened its door to Chinese
tourists.  We believe that favorable structural drivers are
in place for Taiwan’s tourism industry, but attracting
revisits is the next step. Taiwan appears well positioned
to attract tourists from China and Japan, two of the
world’s top three economies. We think the structural
drivers are further visa relaxation for Chinese tourists
and Japan’s rising needs for premium healthcare
services. However, Taiwan needs better tourism
infrastructure to attract revisits, in our view.  
Hong Kong:  Decline in June Retail Sales – Not Just
About Weak Jewelry Sales:  Hong Kong's retail sales
growth declined by 6.9% on a YoY basis in June-14 (vs.
a revised decline of 3.9% YoY in May-14). In volume
terms, retail sales declined by 7.5% YoY in June-14 (vs.
a revised 4.5% decline in May-14). This is the fifth
consecutive month where retail sales have registered a
YoY decline. The persistent weakness in retail sales
remained largely concentrated in the consumer durables
and jewelry/luxury segments.

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关键词：Economics Economic Greater Issues econom withdrawal highlights confusion maintain expected

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