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Not long ago, executives at the Dutch multinationalRoyal DSM, a maker of nutritional supplements and high-tech materials, used torequire a battery of internal studies to decide where to do a deal or locate anew manufacturing plant. But today, “we won’t even do the study,” Stephan B.Tanda, who is responsibility for the Americas. “It’s clear it will be theUnited States.”
荷兰皇家帝斯曼公司（DSM）是生产营养补充品与各种高科技材料的跨国企业，高级主管一向依赖内部研究决定在哪里找生意或设厂。该公司负责美洲区业务的谭达表示，如今，「我们甚至不再做这种研究。显然一定是美国」。
The United States, he said, has lots of cheapnatural gas and a very lightly regulated labor market. At the same time, China,where Royal DSM has some 40 plants, is losing its edge. “It is less attractivethan it used to be as a source from which to serve the world,” Mr. Tanda said.For the last time the United States was as competitive as it is now, he added,“you have to go back to before the first oil shock in the 1970s.” Of the $3.6billion in acquisitions by Royal DSM since 2010, 80 percent has come to theUnited States.
他说，美国拥有可观的廉价天然气与管理宽松的劳力市场。在此同时，皇家DSM大约设有40座工厂的中国大陆已经开始失去它的优势。谭达说：「作为一个服务全球市场的基点而言，中国大陆的吸引力已经不如以往。」他又说，美国上一次竞争力与今天相同的时期是「1970年代的第一次石油危机之前」。在皇家DSM2010年至今执行的36亿美元收购案当中，有80%在美国。
Could globalization make a U-turn?
全球化会不会逆转？
Over the last year or two, a growing number ofbusiness analysts have been arguing that we are entering a new era of globalmanufacturing, with the United States at center stage.
过去这一、二年，越来越多的分析师认为，我们已经进入一个新的全球制造时代，而美国是核心。
Last month, the Boston Consulting Group, a businessadvising firm, said the United States had the lowest manufacturing costs amongmajor exporters in the developed world and was nearly competitive with China.
波士顿顾问集团上个月表示，美国的制造成本在已开发世界主要出口国之中是最低的，竞争力接近中国大陆。
But before becoming overly excited about theprospects for an American industrial renaissance, it is worth looking moreskeptically at the claim that globalization has run its course.
然而在对美国工业复兴的前景过于乐观之前，我们宜乎以更怀疑的态度看待所谓全球化进程已经走到尽头的说法。
“Idon’t agree that China’s moment is coming to an end,” said Karl P. Sauvant atthe Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment. “The most important determinantof investment is market size and market growth, and China remains a big marketand continues to grow at a reasonable pace.”
哥伦比亚永续投资中心的索凡特说：「我不同意中国大陆独领风骚的时代已经结束的看法。市场规模与市场成长是投资的最重要决定因素。中国大陆仍然是庞大的市场，而且以合理的速度持续成长。」
So what if workers in China’s coastal areas arebecoming more expensive? The country will make more sophisticated stuff.Indeed, countries tend to trade more as their incomes converge, not less.Manufacturers seeking cheap labor still have plenty of places to go, likeVietnam, Bangladesh, Mexico or even China’s heavily populated hinterland, whichwill benefit from Beijing’s huge investments in infrastructure connecting it tothe coast.
如果中国大陆沿海地区的劳力成本提高，局面会如何？大陆一定会生产更精密的商品。的确，如果劳工的收入逐渐接近，各国间贸易往往增加而非减少。寻找廉价劳力的企业还有许多地方可去，如越南、孟加拉国、墨西哥甚至人口稠密的中国大陆内地。后者将因为北京对连接它与沿海地带的基础建设挹注重资而受益。
There are dynamics that could put a real dent inglobalization. If energy prices take off again, that will favor regional ratherthan global production networks. Intellectual property piracy in China mighttemper multinational corporations’ appetite to invest in advanced industriesthere.
有些因素可能影响全球化。如果能源价格再度上涨，必然有利区域而非全球的生产网络。中国大陆对智财权的侵害可能影响跨国企业在当地投资先进工业的意愿。
Technologies that allow fewer workers to performmore sophisticated tasks – 3-D printing, say – might encourage more productionin rich countries, near consumer markets.
使更少的劳工得以执行更精密工作的科技，例如3D打印，可能促使更多产品在邻近消费市场的富国制造。
Already, slow growth is undermining the case foropen markets that globalization rests on. Trade has slowed significantly sincethe Great Recession. Protectionist measures have multiplied as countries havesought to protect domestic producers.
成长缓慢已经开始影响全球化所系的开放市场主张。大衰退出现后，贸易大减。各国为保护本国制造商而相继采取保护主义措施。
Perhaps China’s rising costs will finally provide abreak to American workers who have been losing ground for two decades to aonce-bottomless pool of cheap workers.
中国大陆劳力成本提高或许终于让美国劳工有了喘息的机会。20年来美国劳工始终不敌曾经无限供应的中国大陆廉价劳力。
Still, Richard Baldwin of the Graduate Institute ofInternational and Development Studies in Geneva said the convergence in incomesdriven by the fast industrialization of China and some other countries likeBrazil and India is unlikely to stop soon. In 1988, the share of world incomeheld by the seven richest nations peaked at two-thirds. By 2010 it was down tohalf. It is, Mr. Baldwin proposes, “likely to continue to sag for decades.”
然而日内瓦高级国际关系及发展学院的鲍德文表示，中国大陆、巴西、印度等国迅速迈向工业化促成的劳工收入渐趋一致，不太可能很快结束。1988年，全球七大最富裕国家合占举世收入的比例达到历来最高的2/3，2010年降至一半。鲍德文说，未来数十年，这个比例很可能「继续下降」。
Evidence that globalization might be going intoreverse is hard to find in the data. Global foreign direct investment flowsremain substantially below the record $2 trillion of 2007. But last year theyrebounded 9 percent, to $1.45 trillion, according to United Nations data. Morethan half went to developing countries and China received $124 billion, nearlya record and roughly 50 percent more than six years ago.
相关数据不支持全球化趋势可能逆转的说法。根据联合国的数据，全球的外资直接投资总额仍然低于2007年创下的2兆美元，但去年反弹，增加了9%，达到1.45兆美元。其中逾半数流向开发中国家，流向中国大陆的部分则达到近乎创纪录的1240亿美元，约比6年前增加50%。
Even if the United States draws a larger share ofglobal manufacturing, lots of high-wage jobs are unlikely to follow.
即使美国占全球制造的比例增加，许多高薪的就业机会也不太可能回流。
James B. Rice Jr. and Francesco Stefanelli at theMassachusetts Institute of Technology looked at some 50 American companies thathave said they were bringing jobs home. Most have yet to make any move. Mr.Rice said, “We don’t think that’s really what’s happening.”
麻省理工学院的莱斯与史迪法尼里检视大约50家自称要使就业机会回流美国的企业，发现其中多数尚未采取行动。莱斯说：「我们不认为这是实情。」
By Eduardo Porter/陈世钦译 The New York Weekly
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