发帖
雷达卡
We are initiating coverage of Aurelian Resources, Banro Corporation, and Southwestern
Resources, all with SECTOR OUTPERFORM ratings and SPECULATIVE risk profiles.
This is an ideal time to gain exposure to gold exploration companies, as gold
benefits from continued debasement of the U.S. dollar, improving supply and
demand fundamentals, an opportune seasonal entry point, favourable speculative
activity, and facilitated Chinese investor interest.
Senior mining companies have powerful cash flow, largely unleveraged balance
sheets, and an unsatiated demand for growth. We are at the beginning of the
consolidation phase of this great secular metals bull. Emerging acquisition targets
have large, good-quality resources or resource potential, active exploration programs,
acceptable sovereign risk, and attractive valuations. In the interim, they must have
managements capable of exploiting the potential of their portfolios.
In our opinion, these three initiates offer world-class gold exploration exposure.
Aurelian must be credited with one of the most important gold discoveries in decades.
Banro has assembled a property portfolio over one of the last great undeveloped gold
belts in Africa. Southwestern has an outstanding project portfolio, but a management
stumble has created an excellent opportunity.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................2
AURELIAN RESOURCES INC. (ARU-T, $7.55) ..................................................................................................................................3
A WHOLE LOTTA BANANAS ..................................................................................................................................................................3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................................................4
INVESTMENT PROFILE.....................................................................................................................................................................6
VALUATION AND TARGET PRICE .................................................................................................................................................9
BANRO CORPORATION (BAA-T, $11.30).........................................................................................................................................13
RUMBLE IN THE JUNGLE ......................................................................................................................................................................13
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................................14
INVESTMENT PROFILE...................................................................................................................................................................16
MANAGEMENT AND BOARD STRENGTH...............................................................................................................................................16
WORLD-CLASS PROPERTY PORTFOLIO ................................................................................................................................................17
TWANGIZA...........................................................................................................................................................................................19
NAMOYA .............................................................................................................................................................................................21
LUGUSHWA..........................................................................................................................................................................................23
KAMITUGA ..........................................................................................................................................................................................25
REGIONAL EXPLORATION....................................................................................................................................................................26
VALUATION AND TARGET PRICE ...............................................................................................................................................26
RISK PROFILE ......................................................................................................................................................................................28
SOUTHWESTERN RESOURCES CORP. (SWG-T, $5.01).................................................................................................................31
‘THE GOOD’, ‘THE BAD’ AND ‘THE UGLY’ .........................................................................................................................................31
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................................32
INVESTMENT PROFILE...................................................................................................................................................................34
CHINA..................................................................................................................................................................................................34
PERU....................................................................................................................................................................................................39
VALUATION AND TARGET PRICE ...............................................................................................................................................41
PEER COMPARISON.........................................................................................................................................................................45
APPENDIX............................................................................................................................................................................................46
DISTRIBUTION .....................................................................................................................................................................................50
ANALYST CERTIFICATION....................................................................................................................................................................50
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES...................................................................................................................................................................50
RATING STRUCTURE............................................................................................................................................................................51
RISK PROFILE PARAMETERS ................................................................................................................................................................52
DISCLAIMERS.......................................................................................................................................................................................52
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