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Overview
The Indian media sector is estimated to generate advertising
revenues of INR c.293 bn with print and television accounting for
c.94% of the revenues. Television is by far the biggest category
accounting for 65% of the sector and we believe it is the main
driver of the sector.
We estimate the size of the sector to be INR480bn by 2010E. We have factored a slowdown
in print to reflect the fact that a higher interest rate regime could hurt faster-growing
discretionary categories such as automobiles, retail and real estate. This could affect their
share of voice allocations in turn slowing the ad revenue growth. The race for big circulation
numbers among the larger newspapers will continue to drive the geographical spread of the
bigger newspaper groups.
The growth in television will be led primarily by the penetration of addressable platforms. This
will also drive further fragmentation of channels as niche channels enter the industry in
search of viable revenue models and valuations. However, we would prefer the incumbents
who have experimented with various content formats, handled the carriage partners and built
bouquets which we believe will continue to remain relevant as long as the last mile
connectivity in cable remains out of reach. Multi-system operators need to generate
revenues to support capex without which cable faces the threat of losing market share to
DTH. Technology may be universally available but it is not universally affordable.
We believe that that there will be a healthy growth in radio broadcasting but the current
incumbents would grow faster. There are five big players in this INR3bn sector and there will
be exits over the next two years. So far, players have not undercut each other in the
advertising market, but we cannot rule out the possibility. Hence, players with an alternative
revenue stream would be the preferred investment option.
Table of Contents
Overview ............................................................................................ 3
Television industry ............................................................................ 5
Film industry .................................................................................... 14
Radio broadcasting ......................................................................... 20
Print .................................................................................................. 23
Zee Entertainment........................................................................... 27
Television Eighteen ......................................................................... 33
HT Media Ltd.................................................................................... 41
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