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Executive Summary
This report is an executive summary of an initiating coverage report released on
May 30, 2008.
In December, 2007 Scientific America published an article proposing a “Solar
Grand Plan” that could help solve most of the energy problems facing the United
States. This plan suggested that 69% of the U.S.’s electricity and 35% of its
total energy needs (including transportation) could be supplied with solar power
by 2050. This energy would be supplied to the U.S. consumer for about
$0.05/kwh, in line with the low end of electricity prices in North America. The
infrastructure would displace 300 coal-fired power plants and 300 natural gas
plants, and would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1.7 billion tons. Carbon
emissions would be 62% below 2005 levels. Given the abundance of solar
energy hitting the earth every day, blue sky projections such as the above are
not unrealistic. A patch of land covering 63,000 square miles (250 miles x 250
miles) in the U.S. Southwest receives more than 1,100 quadrillion British
thermal units (Btu) of solar radiation a year. Converting only 10% of that
radiation into electricity would match the total energy consumption in the U.S.
for 2006. The obvious constraint for this “Solar Grand Plan” is the cost required
to convert sunlight into useable electricity. To complete the 2050 plan, the
article argues that the U.S. government would have to invest more than $400
billion over 40 years.
Current installed costs for a Photovoltaic (PV) solar generating system of $5.00-
$8.00 per watt need to be reduced to approximately $1.50/watt to be
competitive with traditional forms of electricity (or “the grid”). At the very least,
we believe installed costs for solar systems need to be reduced to approximately
$2.50-$3.00/watt (with minimal subsidies such as carbon credits) in order to be
competitive with high-cost electricity areas of the world or peak pricing
electricity rates (certain industry research firms believe $4.00/watt would be low
enough). In our view, the progress that has been made in the solar PV industry
over the past 10 years (and particularly the last four years) has resulted in
increased confidence by government interests that costs will continue to decline
and that continued government support for the industry is justified. The
continued rise in traditional non-renewable energy costs and rising
environmental concerns increases our confidence. Further government support
for growth in the solar sector will continue to lead to lower costs through greater
economies of scale and the development of better technologies. These
developments should ultimately lead to solar power becoming more competitive
with a large portion of the traditional grid within the next five to seven years.
Once solar power becomes close to being competitive with the grid, the increase
in demand will be significant.
One of the drawbacks of providing government support to an emerging industry
is the potential for certain solar industry players to earn abnormal profits.
Although manufacturing costs for solar panels have declined over the past two
years, solar system prices (the total installed cost of a solar system) have
remained relativity stagnant at approximately $5.00-$8.00/watt. As a result, the
corporate sector has captured a great deal of the cost reductions over the past
three years rather than the consumer. The primary factor behind the
continuation of high solar system costs has been the increases in government
feed-in tariffs, which had generated artificially higher demand. Various
governments (such as Germany, Spain and the U.S.) may decide to reduce
subsidies in order to influence installation prices lower. The industry is also at
risk of prices declining from a significant increase in solar module supply and
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