发帖
雷达卡
英文文献：REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the Proposed West African Monetary Union-拟议中的西非货币联盟的失衡和宏观经济调整
英文文献作者：Asongu Simplice
英文文献摘要：
With the spectre of the Euro crisis hunting embryonic monetary unions, we use a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze REERs imbalances and examine whether the movements in the aggregate real exchange rates are consistent with the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals in the proposed West African Monetary Union (WAMU). Using both country-oriented and WAMU panel-based specifications, we show that the long-run behavior of the REERs can be explained by fluctuations in the terms of trade, productivity, investment, debt and openness. While there is still significant evidence of cross-country differences in the relationship between underlying macroeconomic fundamentals and corresponding REERs, the embryonic WAMU has a stable error correction mechanism with four of the five cointegration relations having signs that are consistent with the predictions from economic theory. Policy implications are discussed and the conclusions of the analysis are a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate over whether the creation of a sustainable monetary union should precede convergence in macroeconomic fundamentals that determine REER adjustments.
胚胎货币与欧元危机的幽灵狩猎工会,我们使用一个动态模型的一个开放的小型经济体,分析实际有效汇率失衡并检查运动总实际汇率是否符合提出的宏观经济基本面西非货币联盟(WAMU)。采用以国家为导向和以WAMU面板为基础的规范，我们表明，REERs的长期行为可以用贸易条件、生产率、投资、债务和开放程度的波动来解释。尽管仍有显著证据表明，潜在的宏观经济基本面与对应的REERs之间的关系存在跨国差异，但初期的WAMU具有稳定的纠错机制，五种协整关系中有四种具有与经济理论预测一致的迹象。本文讨论了政策含义，分析的结论对学术和政策辩论做出了有价值的贡献，即创建一个可持续的货币联盟是否应先于决定实际调整的宏观经济基本面趋同。
京公网安备 11010802022788号
