发帖
雷达卡
More fuel for thought
IATA estimates that airlines face a US$70bn increase in their 2008
fuel bill. We estimate that equates to a US$35 average fare increase
for all flights taken in 2007. While that is daunting, this note
explains why we remain sanguine about aircraft deliveries.
A markedly different industry
The huge change since 2001 in the airline industry and the customer base for aircraft
makes it very difficult to know exactly what will happen to aircraft deliveries in 2009
and 2010. We are braced for overtly negative news flow as airlines seek either to
reduce capacity or plan for more limited growth to counter the higher cost of fuel; all
this against a weaker economic backdrop. We find it difficult to square off the high oil
price and high commodity prices with the sort of economic slowdown that would
actually cause aircraft deliveries to fall from their current level. We continue to expect
aircraft deliveries to level off at the companies' 2008 forecasts, with only new aircraft
programmes such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 generating modest incremental
growth.
The impact of the soaring oil price
IATA currently estimates the increased oil price will add US$70bn to the cost base of
the global airline industry in 2008. To recover that bill, on our calculations based on
2007 traffic, airlines would have to add an average of US$35 to the price of every
flight. As the benefit of fuel hedging diminishes after 2008, further fare increases
would be required to recoup the higher cost of fuel. That simply isn't going to
happen, even in the medium term, without significant dislocation to traffic or a
significant adverse financial impact for many airlines. Over time, however, we believe
it can be done - between 2001 and 2007 the airline industry absorbed a US$72bn
increase in the fuel bill and we have seen instances where fares appear to have risen
significantly without a material impact upon travel.
Where does this leave Rolls-Royce and EADS?
It has been plain for some time that the industry faces some significant challenges. It
is responding in an appropriate manner by reducing capacity or the planned growth in
capacity, primarily by retiring old aircraft. The latter, of course, has only a marginal
impact upon Rolls-Royce's fleet of engines service. We believe the valuations of Rolls-
Royce and EADS have adjusted accordingly. Somewhat to our surprise, air traffic in
all major geographical regions appears to have remained satisfactory, even if growth
is slowing. To date, fuel surcharges and increased ancillary charges appear to have
had a limited, even negligible impact upon demand. We continue to see significant
long-term value in Rolls-Royce and EADS.
Contents
A E R O S P A C E & D E F E N C E 6 J U N E 2 0 0 8 2
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
Chin up 3
We recognise the challenges faced by all airlines, but continue to believe that
aircraft deliveries for 2008 will be in line with the guidance given by Airbus and
Boeing and remain robust in 2009.
I N D U S T R Y D Y N A M I C S
US$35 fix 4
The IATA website estimates the global airline industry faces an additional
US$70bn of costs due to the higher oil price. To recover that US$70bn, we
estimate every passenger that flew in 2007 would have to pay US$35 more.
R E G I O N A L / G L O B A L P E R S P E C T I V E
It’s a big, big world 17
We expect 2008 and 2009 will be challenging years for the aerospace industry.
Nonetheless, we believe the now global market means that one should be wary of
those challenges rather than overawed.
229919.pdf
(465.22 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
