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[外行报告] 花旗银行 消费品与零售行业深度分析报告 96页 [推广有奖]

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 India poised for an organised retail bonanza — Our recent visit to India to meet
with retail operators and consultants served to highlight that India is on the cusp of
rapid growth in the organised retail format. More than 600 shopping malls are
planned for completion over the next 4-5 years, compared with about 100 now in
existence.


 Two companies, two very different formats — We highlight two key operators that
should benefit from the reorganization of Indian retail; Pantaloon, with its localized
“bazaar” style format, and Shopper’s Stop, with its more formal “Western” style
supermarket chain.


 Wide open window of opportunity — India is at the peak of the cycle in terms of
opportunities for organised retailers to now gain first mover advantage. Foreigners
are trying hard to get a foot in the door. The China experience would suggest those
in first are likely to prosper. Local incumbents have bold plans for expansion.


 Upgrading Pantaloon to Buy; maintain Sell on Shoppers Stop — Princy Singh has
upgraded Pantaloon to BUY, from SELL, with a revised target price of Rs500, based
on 30x FY08 P/E. For Shopper’s Stop we have revised our TP to Rs421 from Rs270,
but maintain our Sell rating; at 45x FY08F EPS we believe the risk-reward scenario
remains unfavourable, with the positive macro backdrop and a potential acquisition
of up to 51% of Hypercity fully discounted in current multiples.


 Regional sector top picks — We add Pantaloon and Li & Fung to our top picks list,
and remove CJ Corp and Esprit.

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