概率－哲学导论（英文版－D.H.Mellor ）

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概率－哲学导论
Probability: A Philosophical Introduction
D. H. Mellor
英文版


Contents
Preface xi
Introduction and Summary
I Introduction 1
II Summary 4
1 Kinds of Probability
I Introduction 8
II Chances 10
III Epistemic Probabilities 11
IV Credences 12
V How Kinds of Probability Differ 13
VI Probabilities of Complex Propositions 14
VII Conditional Probabilities 15
VIII Numerical Probabilities 16
IX Pure and Applied Probability 19
2 Classical Probabilities
I Introduction 22
II Two Kinds of Possibility 23
III Credences 24
IV Sample Spaces 25
V Infinite Sample Spaces 27
VI Indifference 28
VII Chances 30
3 Frequencies
I Credences 33
II Epistemic Probabilities 34
III Humean Chances 36
IV Frequentism and Classicism 39
V Limiting Frequencies 41
VI Hypothetical Frequencies 43
4 Possibilities and Propensities
I Modal Chances 46
II Propensities 50
III Dispositions 52
IV Dispositional Chances 54
V Chance and Necessity 59
VI Modality versus Propensity 62
VII The Existence of Chances 63
5 Credence
I Degrees of Belief 66
II Betting and Belief 68
III Coherence 70
IV Approximate Credences 72
V Decision Theory 75
6 Confirmation
I Measuring Evidential Support 80
II Epistemic and Other Probabilities 81
III Inductive Logic 83
IV Chances as Evidence 85
V Confirmation Relations 88
7 Conditionalisation
I Conditional Probability 91
II The Pro Rata Rule 92
III Epistemic Probabilities 94
IV Problems with Priors 95
V Prior Credences 97
VI Bayes’s Theorem 98
VII Bayesianism 100
8 Input Credences
I Perception 102
II Consistency 104
III Reliability 106
IV Uncertain Evidence 109
9 Questions for Bayesians
I Sample Spaces 113
II Bayes’s Proposition 3 115
III Decisions and Credences 117
IV Conditional Bets 120
V Imaging 122
VI Non-Bayesian Behaviour 123
VII Conclusion 126
10 Chance, Frequency and Credence
I The Straight Rule 128
II The Large Numbers Link 130
III Independence 132
IV Chances and Estimates 133
V Exchangeability 135
VI Frequencies and Credences 136
VII Subjectivism 138
References 143
Index 147

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